UK braces for price rises driven by Iran war as economic confidence plummets

Confidence in the UK economy has fallen sharply amid the mounting economic fallout from the Iran war, surveys show, as businesses prepare to raise their prices and consumers brace for a fresh cost of living shock.Highlighting the knock-on effect of the Middle East crisis in Britain, several closely watched surveys of business activity and consumer confidence blamed the US-Israeli war on Iran for a marked deterioration in the outlook in April.The latest barometer from the data company GfK showed UK consumer confidence slid in April to its lowest level since October 2023, while three separate business surveys revealed an increase in cost pressures facing companies and an expectation they would raise their prices over the coming months.Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said soaring fuel prices and the prospect of higher energy costs were a constant reminder to consumers of the inflationary shock from the war.“Consumers really do have the jitters now,” he said

American Airlines says soaring price of jet fuel will cost it $4bn this year

The soaring price of jet fuel will cost American Airlines another $4bn this year, the carrier has said, wiping out forecast profits.The airline, the world’s largest by passengers flown, said the fuel crisis from the US-Israel war on Iran could push it into losses during 2026, having forecast profits approaching $1.8bn before bombing started.The price of jet fuel has more than doubled since the conflict began at the end of February. While many European airlines have hedged their fuel, locking in a purchase price for months or years ahead, American carriers have been exposed to the price rises

Fertiliser is in short supply. What does it mean for Australia’s farmers – and your bread?

The US-Israel war on Iran is delivering a double blow to Australian farmers, who are being hit by the spike in diesel prices as well as an equally severe surge in the price of fertiliser.Soaring fuel costs are hurting almost every business and household but growers are now making decisions about planting that will affect the size of their crops come harvest time.So why are we experiencing this fertiliser squeeze, how much worse could it get, and what does it all mean for farmers and the price of food?A fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the strait of Hormuz, which has essentially been shut since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February.But the share of world supply of urea – the most popular commonly used fertiliser – that typically passed through the strait before the conflict was more than twice that, at 43%.For sulphur – used to produce phosphate fertilisers – the figure is 44%

BP board suffers triple climate rebellion from shareholders

BP’s board has suffered a triple climate rebellion in its first shareholder meeting since appointing new leadership to steer the embattled oil company.More than 50% of shareholders voting at the company’s annual general meeting (AGM) came out against its plans to scrap its existing climate reporting, and its resolution to replace in-person annual shareholder meetings – a lightning rod for climate protest in recent years – with online-only events.About 18% of shareholders voted against the re-election of BP’s chair, Albert Manifold, less than a year after he took on the role. The “unprecedented” revolt means BP will not be allowed to carry out the resolutions that were defeated by a majority, although Manifold will remain as chair.The dissenting shareholders included Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), the UK’s largest asset manager, which had said it would vote against Manifold and oppose BP’s plans to cut back on climate reporting

UK undershoots annual borrowing target by £700m

The UK government budget came in below its annual borrowing target by £700m, official figures show – but the Iran war is likely to blow a hole in Rachel Reeves’s carefully calculated fiscal “headroom” over the coming months.The government borrowed a net total of £132bn for the financial year ending in March, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. This slightly undershot the £132.7bn that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had forecast just last month.The total was £19

Sainsbury’s boss urges government to help ease rising energy costs for food producers

The boss of Sainsbury’s has called on the government to help ease the rising cost of energy for farmers, food producers and retailers caused by the conflict in the Middle East to prevent further price rises.Simon Roberts, the chief executive of the UK’s second largest grocer, said: “The single biggest thing the government could do to keep prices down is to make sure energy prices for the industry are not rising faster.”Referring to the expansion of support on bills for energy-intensive UK businesses announced by the chancellor last week, Roberts said: “Some sectors have seen those reliefs and it is now time to look at what’s possible in food [growing], manufacturing and retailing.”He said Sainsbury’s had not yet had problems with the availability of food, and that was being helped by the UK entering the season in which more food is home-grown. The growing season is in full swing in the UK but that takes a lot of energy to produce,” he said, highlighting the cost of heating polytunnels to produce fruit and salad vegetables, higher fuel costs to transport food from farms to shops, and the cost of running refrigerators

Iran war pushing up till price of some drugs by up to 30%, pharmacies warn

The war in Iran has pushed up the price of widely used medicines in England, including painkillers and hay fever medication, leading pharmacists have warned.Community chemists are charging customers 20-30% more for paracetamol than they did in February, according to the National Pharmacy Association (NPA), and many have run out of certain strengths of aspirin and co-codamol.Over-the-counter prices for cetirizine tablets, a common hay fever medication, are also estimated to have risen 20-30% in the same period.The jump in petrol and diesel prices since the war began nearly eight weeks ago has increased manufacturing and transport costs for medicine suppliers. These have fed through to pharmacies, which are paying 40-50% more to order in stock

Yes, retail investment needs a boost – but the squirrel looks too tame | Nils Pratley

Red squirrel characters have a history in the public information game. Older UK readers may recall Tufty, who taught children about road safety in the 1970s. His chum, Willy Weasel, regularly got knocked down by passing cars but clever Tufty always remembered to look both ways.Now comes Savvy Squirrel, who, with backing from the chancellor and a multi-year lump of advertising spend from the financial services industry, will try “to drive a step-change in how investing is understood, discussed and adopted”, as the blurb puts it. In translation: don’t squirrel everything away in a boring cash Isa but try taking an investment risk or two if you value your long-term financial health

Capital gains tax changes are on the table, and yet Armageddon has not arrived. Has the tide on housing turned at last? | Greg Jericho

A funny thing happened on the way to the budget: changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing, which had for years been a no-go zone, are now looking likely.One of the first times I wrote about negative gearing was in 2015 when I covered the then treasurer Joe Hockey appearing on Q+A. He said negative gearing was needed because when the Hawke government scrapped it in the 1980s rental prices rose.He was wrong (and to be honest, this was not unusual – a lot of my columns back then involved arguing Joe Hockey was wrong). While rental price growth went up in Sydney and Perth, it didn’t in Melbourne, Brisbane or Adelaide

Middle East war ‘could wipe out 75% of chancellor’s budget headroom’; UK inflation climbs to 3.3% – as it happened

Oil prices have gone back above $100 a barrel again.Reversing earlier declines, Brent crude is now 2.1% ahead at $100.57 a barrel, after Iran seized two ships in the strait of Hormuz, tightening its grip on the strategic waterway. Overnight, Donald Trump extended the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, until Tehran comes up with a peace proposal

Ryanair to close check-in 20 minutes earlier amid concern over Europe border queues

Ryanair will close airport check-in desks 20 minutes earlier to avoid passengers missing flights, it has announced, amid concern over border queues in Europe.The budget airline, which carries 200 million passengers annually, will require all passengers dropping bags or checking in at the airport to do so one hour before take-off rather than the current 40-minute deadline.Ryanair said the change, which will take effect from November, would give more time for passengers to clear airport security and passport control and reduce the number who miss flights through being stuck in queues.While the move was not prompted by the introduction of Europe’s entry-exit system (EES), which requires most non-EU citizens to provide biometric data at the border, the airline said the system had been a factor in increasing passport queues.Waits of several hours have been reported at some airports in the phased introduction of EES since October

Tui cuts profit forecast as effects of Iran war cost travel group €40m

The Iran war has cost the travel company Tui €40m (£34.7m) so far, including repatriating almost 12,000 holidaymakers and staff, and forced it to cut its profit forecast for this year.Europe’s biggest holiday operator said it had taken the hit in March owing to the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, as it was forced to bring home 5,000 guests from two cruise ships anchored in ports in Abu Dhabi and Doha.A further 5,000 European holidaymakers were also repatriated from destinations in the region, with Tui saying its operations in Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt were particularly badly affected.In addition, the company returned 1,500 crew members from the ships, which were able to escape through the strait of Hormuz “during a pause in hostilities” on Sunday, and will commence their summer season itineraries in the Mediterranean from the middle of next month

Save blue cheese rind for this unbeatable dressing – recipe | Waste not

On a single crumb of cheese rind there are more than 10 billion microbes: that’s more microbial cells than there are people on Earth. Cheese rind is an intensified expression of the cheese, with a powerful flavour and highly concentrated community of good bacteria, yeast and mould. But it is misunderstood and underrated, and often removed and discarded. Though it can be intense, it’s almost always edible, unless it’s grown new mould or contains synthetic plastic, wax or cloth, which should be removed.Like an apple or slice of bread, the skin, crust or rind add texture, flavour and nutrients to the eating experience

Head’s up: 12 main-course cauliflower recipes from easy to ambitious

Cauliflower looks like the ghost of broccoli, or a human brain that has been drained of blood. As is the case with many overlooked vegetables, boiling is the absolutely second-worst way to cook it (we do not talk about cauliflower rice), while roasting is best, to coax out its sweet and nutty flavours. A whole head is very good and affordable in Australia at the moment and can easily feed a whole family.Marrying florets with warm spices and fragrant baked rice, Meera Sodha’s vegan recipe is finished with a drizzle of fresh lemon juice to keep the flavour fresh. Pick a purple cauliflower and the acid at the end will flush the florets bright pink

How do I get texture and that umami hit without meat? | Kitchen aide

I’ve recently given up eating pork, but I’m struggling to compensate for its umami. How can I recreate the taste and texture in, say, carbonara or my beloved chorizo dishes?James, by emailFor Joe Woodhouse, author of Weeknight Vegetarian, there’s just something about white beans: “Whether cooked from dried, then dropping chopped onion, garlic, sage and thyme into the broth, or just dumping a jar or tin into a pan with fried garlic and sage, the smell that fills the kitchen is like that of sausagemeat,” he says. “It tastes a bit like it, too – or at least the memory of it, bearing in mind I haven’t eaten the stuff for 30 years.”The quest for that umami savouriness could start with soy sauce, Woodhouse says (“or Slow Sauce’s oat shoyu”), while chef Mike Davies’ first port of call would be Totole’s Chinese mushroom seasoning powder: “It’s super-effective in replacing the richness and fattiness that comes from cooking with any meat, and especially pork,” says the chef-director of the Camberwell Arms, south London. “Honestly, it’s such a cheat-code ingredient

Georgina Hayden’s quick and easy recipe for smoky prawn, new potato and spinach stew | Quick and easy

This Spanish-style stew is a superb midweek dinner – it’s effortless but looks specialThis Spanish-inspired stew is a great weeknight dinner, particularly if you are having a few friends over, because it feels a bit special while actually being effortless and easy. If you want to take that effortlessness to the next level, make the potato base in advance, then finish off with the spinach and prawns just before serving (I like to do as little cooking as possible in front of guests, leaving me free to chat and pour drinks). Serve with a peppery, lemon-dressed salad on the side and hunks of crusty bread to mop up the juices.Prep 5 min Cook 35 min Serves 44 tbsp olive oil, plus extra for drizzling 5 garlic cloves, peeled, 4 finely sliced, 1 left whole½ tsp sweet smoked paprika ¼ tsp mild chilli powder 1 tbsp tomato puree 250g ripe tomatoes, choppedSea salt and black pepper 300ml fish stock 600g new potatoes, halved (or quartered if very large)1 lemon 150g baby spinach 350g peeled king prawns, deveined, if you like6 tbsp mayonnaise ½ bunch flat-leaf parsley, finely choppedPut a large, deep, ovenproof frying pan on a medium-low heat and drizzle in the olive oil. Add the sliced garlic, fry for a minute, then stir in the paprika, chilli powder and tomato puree

How to make creme caramel – recipe | Felicity Cloake's Masterclass

I don’t know why this classic French dessert isn’t more popular online, given how pleasant it is to watch a softly set custard jiggling seductively on screen, or to admire the way the light bounces off its glossy, caramel top. Worse still, it’s also increasingly hard to find on menus, too. Well, you know what they say: if you want something done well, do it yourself.Prep 15 min Cook 50 minCool 4 hr+ Makes 6For the custardSoft butter, or neutral oil (eg, sunflower, vegetable or groundnut), for greasing500ml whole milk (see step 2)1 vanilla pod, or 1 tsp vanilla extract 2 whole eggs 100g caster sugar 4 egg yolksFor the caramel60g caster sugar 40g soft dark brown sugar (see step 3)1 pinch saltLightly grease six dariole moulds, small pudding bowls or smooth-sided ramekins.Arrange these on a baking tray or shallow tin, preferably one just large enough to hold them all without too much room around the edge, and put it within easy reach of the hob

Making a splash: demand for raw and ‘brewed’ milk growing in UK

Farmers and delivery firms launch new options for those seeking alternative to traditionally pasteurised productRaw milk has long been popular, as well as controversial, in the US. While health authorities warn it can carry harmful bacteria, supporters argue it is more natural, and it has also become tied to anti-government and “natural living” movements.In the UK, it is now gaining popularity, particularly among younger consumers, farmers say, as a less processed option, with new products launching to meet demand.Raw milk comes straight from the cow (or sheep or goat) and has not been pasteurised, the process of heating liquids to eliminate harmful pathogens and make them safe to drink.Because it does not undergo this heat treatment, the Food Standards Agency warns that raw milk can cause food poisoning, posing particular risks to pregnant women, young children and people with weakened immune systems

Holy Carrot, London E1: ‘As good as plant-based dining gets’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

This place is about so much more than just a portobello mushroom in a white bap masquerading as dinnerHoly Carrot has, cough, taken root in Spitalfields, east London. It’s the second sprouting from this plant-based restaurant with a name that’s especially hard to sell to meat-loving friends. “Please come with me to a vegan restaurant,” one might say. “It’s not one of those pious places, honest! Oh, um, the name? Holy Carrot.” In fairness, though, it’s generally tricky to cajole meaty people to venture anywhere vegan or even vegetarian, because there’s always a sense that your steak addict acquaintance is enduring their meal “as an experiment”, and despite quite charitably being “willing to be convinced”

Helen Goh’s recipe for Anzac sandwich biscuits with dark chocolate filling | The sweet spot

Anzac biscuits are closely associated with Anzac Day on 25 April, which commemorates the members of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps who served in the first world war. Made with oats, coconut and golden syrup, the biscuits are said to have been popular because they travelled well and kept for long periods, making them suitable for sending to forces overseas. My version here, a slightly less austere take on the classic, sandwiches two small biscuits with a lightly salted, olive oil-enriched dark chocolate ganache. The result is crisp at the edges, soft within and not too sweet.Prep 5 min Cook 35 min, plus cooling Makes 12 sFor the biscuits 90g rolled oats 45g plain flour 40g light brown sugar 30g caster sugar 40g desiccated coconut 80g unsalted butter 40g golden syrup ½ tsp bicarbonate of soda ¼ tsp fine sea saltFor the ganache110g dark chocolate (60-70% cocoa solids), chopped60ml single cream 2 tsp olive oil ¼ tsp flaky sea saltPut the oats, flour, sugars and coconut in a medium bowl and whisk to combine

Just the tonic: why it’s more than a mixer

If a tonic is something that “makes you feel stronger and happier”, my tonics come in the form of good wine, bad chocolate and an ageing whippet called Ernie. Recently, though, I’ve found myself craving the OG tonic – tonic water – which started life as a malaria treatment in the age of the British empire.The Guardian’s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more

Move over matcha: how ube cocktails and coffees are hitting the UK’s sweet spot

Bright purple coffees and cocktails made with a root vegetable called ube have hit the high street in the UK after the yam’s striking hue caused a sensation on social media. Many are calling ube the “new matcha”, and it has a nutty, creamy, sweet taste, like a mix between coconut and vanilla.Ube coloured and flavoured drinks became popular in the US last year, after an earlier boom in Australia. Farmers in the Philippines, where the root vegetable is often sourced, have been struggling to meet demand.Now, the purple drinks have crossed the pond: Starbucks and Costa both launched ube drinks in their UK stores last month

Rachel Roddy’s ‘high-ranking’ penne with potatoes, cabbage, butter and cheese – recipe

In December 2023, the magazine La Cucina Italiana ranked Italians’ favourite pasta shapes, according to data gathered by Unione Italiana Food (“the leading association in Italy for the direct representation of food product categories”). I love this sort of thing. According to the UIF, by processing NielsenIQ data (comprehensive market research, consumer intelligence and retail measurement), they identified the five most popular shapes from over 500, and examined how preferences vary in different regions.In first place was spaghetti, while penne came in second, with these two shapes – which also takes in thinner spaghettini, chunkier spaghettoni and both ridged and smooth penne – accounting for 78% of all pasta sold in Italy in 2023. The regional variations of three, four and five are as follows: in the north-west and north-east, fusilli, short pasta and mixed pasta for broth or minestra; in central Italy, short pasta, fusilli and rigatoni; in the south, mixed pasta for broth or minestra, short pasta and tortiglioni

How to turn old bread into a brilliant Italian cake – recipe | Waste not

Old sourdough is my secret ingredient. To stop it going mouldy, I take it out of any plastic packaging and keep it in the bread bin with plenty of airflow around it – that way, it will dry out slowly, rather than turning mouldy. Any odds and ends, meanwhile, I store in a cloth bag to use in various dishes, from pangrattato (or poor man’s parmesan) to strata, a savoury bread-and-butter pudding.My new favourite recipe discovery for using up stale bread is today’s torta paesana, or village cake, from Lombardy. The best way I can come up with to describe it is that it’s a bit like a firm baked custard