Quarter of a million people could lose job by middle of 2027 as UK ‘flirts with recession’, analysis says

A quarter of a million people could lose their jobs by the middle of next year as Britain “flirts with recession”, analysis suggests, after business confidence was shattered by the US-Israel war on Iran.As the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, summoned bank chiefs for talks aimed at containing the fallout, twin reports from top accounting firms underlined the scale of the economic threat facing the UK.Iran’s retaliatory closure of the strait of Hormuz trade route and its strikes on its regional neighbours, which have sent oil and gas prices soaring, will cause the biggest economic hit since the Covid pandemic, according to the EY Item Club, an economic forecast group.A separate report by Deloitte found finance bosses at big UK businesses were already reining in their spending plans, taking action that was likely to weigh on economic activity and hiring.The EY Item Club said it expected the UK economy to flatline in the second and third quarters of this year, leaving the country at risk of recession, defined as two successive quarters of contraction

William Hill owner Evoke in talks on £225m takeover by casino group Bally’s

Evoke, the London-listed gambling company that owns William Hill and the 888 online casino brand, is in takeover talks with the US casino operator Bally’s Intralot.The heavily indebted company said in a statement to the stock market that it was in discussions with Bally’s “regarding a possible offer” for the business at 50p a share, almost a third higher than its closing price on Friday and valuing the group at £225m.It comes four years after the company, previously known as 888 Holdings, paid £2.2bn to buy William Hill’s network of 1,400 bookmakers. Since then, its shares have fallen by 90%

Ed Miliband to double down on net zero with measures to combat Iran energy shock

Ed Miliband will double down on Labour’s commitment to net zero in the face of the Middle East conflict this week, insisting that as fossil fuel prices soar “the era of clean energy security must come of age”.The energy secretary is set to announce a package of new policies in a speech on Tuesday in response to an expected energy crisis prompted by Donald Trump’s war with Iran.These will include speeding up the warm homes plan to encourage the rapid take-up of solar panels and electric vehicles; expanding the use of solar on public land; and delinking gas and electricity prices, to cut consumers’ bills.“As we face the second global energy shock in less than five years, the lesson for our country is clear; the era of fossil fuel security is over, and the era of clean energy security must come of age,” he is expected to say.Oil prices plunged on Friday amid claims that the key maritime choke point of the strait of Hormuz was reopening – but those hopes were dashed over the weekend, with Iran insisting it would remain under “strict control”

ABF poised to reveal result of Primark and food business demerger plan

Primark may break free from Kingsmill, Twinings and the sugar business this week when Associated British Foods announces plans on a mooted demerger.The potential split comes at a tricky time for the group controlled by the billionaire Weston family, with its fashion and food arms facing tough competition and rising costs.ABF, which owns bakeries, a sugar production business and provides ingredients to the restaurant trade alongside selling brands including Patak’s spice flavourings, Blue Dragon sauces and Jordans cereals, said in November last year that it was considering a demerger of Primark, its fashion arm. It said a strategic review carried out with the help of the advisory company Rothschild & Co had “a view to maximising long-term value”.That was followed by a subdued statement on Christmas trading in January when the company admitted that annual sales were likely to be flat year on year and profits down

We all share blame for the decline of our high streets | Brief letters

I sympathise with people mourning the demise of once‑loved stores and the pitiful state of their high streets (Wildings in Newport, Wales: the grand department store that became an illicit cannabis farm, 16 April). This is not the fault of the government, but rather a result of changing consumer habits. Perhaps we are all guilty. These shops are not charities, there to adorn the public realm. They are businesses and if people don’t shop there they will close

Independent bookstores make quiet comeback as big chains dominate retail

For years now, we have heard that Amazon and the big chains are crushing small businesses, but independent bookstores are suddenly making a comeback.About 422 new indie bookshops opened in 2025, according to the American Booksellers Association, a 31% rise from 2024. Countless independent restaurants, coffee shops, fitness centers, movie theaters, clothing stores and other small businesses also continue to thrive even in this era of ever-bigger retailers, fast-casual restaurants and massive e-commerce platforms.The reasons are obvious.For starters, we live in a big country

Bank bosses called to meeting with Reeves over impact of Iran war on UK economy

The bosses of Britain’s “big five” retail banks have been summoned to a meeting with the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, this week to discuss how to limit the economic impact of the crisis in the Middle East triggered by the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran.The chief executives of HSBC, Barclays, Lloyds, NatWest and Santander have been asked to attend an emergency summit on Wednesday, amid increasing acceptance that a major economic hit from the Iran war is unavoidable.Talks will focus on how to protect those most vulnerable to the ripple effect, according to a source familiar with the plans, with borrowers who are braced for mortgage rate increases a particular area of focus.This will include an update on banks’ commitment to support 1.6m customers whose fixed-rate deals end between now and the end of the year, under the government’s mortgage charter

Falling fertility, debt and AI: is the US headed toward a population crisis?

Americans having fewer kids plus an ageing population could be a recipe for disaster that further erodes social stabilityRemember environmentalist Paul Ehrlich’s 1960s-vintage prediction about how overpopulation would deplete the Earth’s resources and condemn millions to starvation? His Malthusian condemnation of humanity’s voracious appetite has kept a grip on the debate over the future of the planet, even scaring the young out of having children.Ehrlich was wrong. Yet as we have come around to the thought that overpopulation won’t kill us all, we are being walloped by another demographic emergency: we are not having too many kids, we are having too few. This problem is real.The most recent scare came from government figures released last week suggesting the fall in US fertility – the number of children a woman will have over her lifetime – may be speeding up, hitting a record low of 1

Labour’s ‘crabwise’ approach to closer EU ties must address damage of Brexit | Heather Stewart

Rachel Reeves joined EU finance ministers for dinner in Washington last week, on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund spring meetings – the first time a chancellor had done so since Brexit.It was the latest symbolic step in Labour’s marked shift towards prioritising closer EU relations.That makes perfect sense against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s reckless Middle East conflict. But domestic politics and economics have increasingly aligned in favour of a lean towards the EU, too – or, rather, Labour has increasingly opened its eyes to them.As political scientists such as Rob Ford and Ben Ansell have been all but screaming for some time, Labour is losing many more voters to the left wing, pro-EU Greens and Liberal Democrats than to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK

‘I don’t want to waste the gas’: Uber and Lyft drivers reeling as fuel prices soar

Drivers for Uber and Lyft across the US are spending hundreds more dollars on fuel each month after the US-Israel war on Iran triggered a sharp rise in oil prices.Support offered by the ride-hailing companies amounts to a “slap in the face”, drivers operating their services told the Guardian, as many are forced to choose between driving more to make the same money as previously – or cutting back their miles to reduce costs.The companies have both expanded rewards and discounts through financial services products in recent weeks, as average US fuel prices surged from $2.98 a gallon at the end of February to above $4.But gig workers at Uber and Lyft say such support is not enough, and “pretty hollow” compared to any increase in pay for drivers

Vodafone incentivised security staff to fine its own franchisees

Vodafone incentivised its security staff to increase “clawbacks” levied on its own franchisees, as part of a programme that led to the telecoms group fining its own shopkeepers millions of pounds for seemingly small administrative errors.The policy – which included one alleged case of a £10,000 penalty for a franchisee whose mistake cost Vodafone £7.08 – involved setting “key performance indicators” (KPIs) for the telecoms group’s internal employees to collect total annual fines of £1.5m from the small business people running the FTSE 100 company’s high street stores.The existence of the fines regime has proved controversial for years and forms part of a high court claim brought by 62 former Vodafone franchisees in 2024, who allege the mobile phone company “unjustly enriched” itself by up to £85m by using tactics MPs have compared to the Post Office Horizon IT scandal

More Britons opt to holiday in UK this summer amid uncertainty over flights

Holiday companies have predicted a surge in bookings for UK summer breaks after a jump in interest from Britons fearful of flight cancellations linked to the Iran war.Summer bookings are expected to rise in the coming weeks amid warnings of possible jet fuel shortages and resulting cancellations by airlines across Europe.Raoul Fraser, the chief executive of Lovat, a holiday park operator with sites across south-west England, said traffic to its website had increased after reports of jet fuel warnings last week. “It is definitely having a positive impact for us,” he said.“Our holidays bookings are up over 30% this year

Helen Goh’s recipe for Anzac sandwich biscuits with dark chocolate filling | The sweet spot

Anzac biscuits are closely associated with Anzac Day on 25 April, which commemorates the members of the Australian and New Zealand Army Corps who served in the first world war. Made with oats, coconut and golden syrup, the biscuits are said to have been popular because they travelled well and kept for long periods, making them suitable for sending to forces overseas. My version here, a slightly less austere take on the classic, sandwiches two small biscuits with a lightly salted, olive oil-enriched dark chocolate ganache. The result is crisp at the edges, soft within and not too sweet.Prep 5 min Cook 35 min, plus cooling Makes 12 sFor the biscuits 90g rolled oats 45g plain flour 40g light brown sugar 30g caster sugar 40g desiccated coconut 80g unsalted butter 40g golden syrup ½ tsp bicarbonate of soda ¼ tsp fine sea saltFor the ganache110g dark chocolate (60-70% cocoa solids), chopped60ml single cream 2 tsp olive oil ¼ tsp flaky sea saltPut the oats, flour, sugars and coconut in a medium bowl and whisk to combine

Just the tonic: why it’s more than a mixer

If a tonic is something that “makes you feel stronger and happier”, my tonics come in the form of good wine, bad chocolate and an ageing whippet called Ernie. Recently, though, I’ve found myself craving the OG tonic – tonic water – which started life as a malaria treatment in the age of the British empire.The Guardian’s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more

Move over matcha: how ube cocktails and coffees are hitting the UK’s sweet spot

Bright purple coffees and cocktails made with a root vegetable called ube have hit the high street in the UK after the yam’s striking hue caused a sensation on social media. Many are calling ube the “new matcha”, and it has a nutty, creamy, sweet taste, like a mix between coconut and vanilla.Ube coloured and flavoured drinks became popular in the US last year, after an earlier boom in Australia. Farmers in the Philippines, where the root vegetable is often sourced, have been struggling to meet demand.Now, the purple drinks have crossed the pond: Starbucks and Costa both launched ube drinks in their UK stores last month

Rachel Roddy’s ‘high-ranking’ penne with potatoes, cabbage, butter and cheese – recipe

In December 2023, the magazine La Cucina Italiana ranked Italians’ favourite pasta shapes, according to data gathered by Unione Italiana Food (“the leading association in Italy for the direct representation of food product categories”). I love this sort of thing. According to the UIF, by processing NielsenIQ data (comprehensive market research, consumer intelligence and retail measurement), they identified the five most popular shapes from over 500, and examined how preferences vary in different regions.In first place was spaghetti, while penne came in second, with these two shapes – which also takes in thinner spaghettini, chunkier spaghettoni and both ridged and smooth penne – accounting for 78% of all pasta sold in Italy in 2023. The regional variations of three, four and five are as follows: in the north-west and north-east, fusilli, short pasta and mixed pasta for broth or minestra; in central Italy, short pasta, fusilli and rigatoni; in the south, mixed pasta for broth or minestra, short pasta and tortiglioni

How to turn old bread into a brilliant Italian cake – recipe | Waste not

Old sourdough is my secret ingredient. To stop it going mouldy, I take it out of any plastic packaging and keep it in the bread bin with plenty of airflow around it – that way, it will dry out slowly, rather than turning mouldy. Any odds and ends, meanwhile, I store in a cloth bag to use in various dishes, from pangrattato (or poor man’s parmesan) to strata, a savoury bread-and-butter pudding.My new favourite recipe discovery for using up stale bread is today’s torta paesana, or village cake, from Lombardy. The best way I can come up with to describe it is that it’s a bit like a firm baked custard

Roast chicken, cheesy scones and a genius cocktail: Ravinder Bhogal’s recipes for cooking with lime pickle

I’m obsessed with lime pickle. It’s savoury, sour, funky, spicy and full of bold personality that enlivens anything it’s smeared on. It’s made by salting and fermenting limes with chillies and spices for a fierce, flavour-packed condiment that’s traditionally eaten as a side to poppadoms or with simple dal and rice. Over the years, I have also folded it into grilled cheese toasties, marinades for fat prawns to barbecue in the summer or made compound butters with it to smother over sweet potatoes before roasting. It’s an instant flavour bomb and my pantry is never without a jar

Vegemite is recognised globally – but how many people know Milo was invented in Australia?

The chocolate malt powder is sold in more than 40 countries, and Australian cafe owners say there’s ‘jingoistic pride’ in serving it on their menusGet our weekend culture and lifestyle emailWhen I order the jumbo-sized Milo Godzilla at Ho Jiak in Sydney’s Haymarket, it arrives as advertised – it’s comically large. The Malaysian restaurant prepares the drink by swirling Milo powder with hot water, adding sweet drizzles of condensed milk then chilling the mix with ice. Scoops of ice-cream are added and extra choc-malt powder is showered on top. Served in a one-litre jug, it’s so big I can’t finish it solo: staff hand me three takeaway cups to transport the leftovers.Like many beloved Milo drinks, the Godzilla is native to south-east Asia

What can I do with leftover rice? | Kitchen aide

How do I store cooked rice safely, and what can I make with it the next day?Michael, by email“It’s a bit of a running joke with rice, because I think of all the people in China who aren’t spreading their leftover rice immediately on to a tray to cool and are still alive,” says Amy Poon, of Poon’s at Somerset House in London. “But I have to be responsible and say: cool the rice as quickly as possible, within the hour, and put it in an airtight container and pop it in the fridge [or freezer] straight away.” The reason being, as food science guru Harold McGee notes in his bible On Food & Cooking, “Raw rice almost always carries dormant spores of the bacterium Bacillus cereus, which produces powerful gastrointestinal toxins. The spores can tolerate high temperatures, and some survive cooking.” In short: good storage practices will prevent bacterial growth, not to mention open a whole world of dinner opportunities

José Pizarro’s recipe for nettle (or wild garlic) and goat’s cheese tortilla

When I was growing up in the small village of Talaván in Extremadura, Spain, we never ate nettles. They were wild plants that grew along the edges of the fields, and the sort you tried to avoid: like many children, I learned about them the hard way, brushing against them while playing and getting stung. It was only when I came to the UK that I first saw nettles used in cooking, which surprised me: suddenly, this wild plant had a place in the kitchen. Now, whenever I visit my mum, Isabel, I see them everywhere. It makes me smile to think that at this year’s Spring Garden at the Chelsea flower show, I will be cooking among a world of magnificent plants and gardens

Gone from shop shelves, but not forgotten | Letters

How lucky for Adrian Chiles that he didn’t live in the German Democratic Republic (Rose’s Lime Marmalade? Gone. Dark chocolate Bounty? No more. But what about their heartbroken fans?, 8 April). After reunification, there were street markets selling the last of products from the old days, and there was an exhibition in a national museum – memorably called “They’ve even taken our tomato ketchup” – lamenting the loss of many food products and other features of former times, such as children’s TV programmes.Derek JanesDuns, Scottish Borders Can Adrian Chiles tell me where to find Halls’ chocolate sour lemons? Maybe they stopped being made because they turned your tongue black, but they tasted great

Cornichon shortage leaves British sandwich shops in a pickle

With their sharp flavour and crunch, pickled cucumbers are an essential component of any sandwich worth its salt.But an unexpected shortage of cornichons has caused consternation in sandwich shops across the country as cafes scramble to get their hands on jars of the small green pickles.A favourite sandwich of hungry office workers is the simple jambon beurre. A staple across the Channel, the French sandwich contains ham, a generous amount of butter, and, crucially, a sharp, crunchy cornichon to cut through the fat.Sandwich chain Pret a Manger brought it to popularity in the UK, and a jambon beurre retails for about £4 in its shops

Rukmini Iyer’s quick and easy recipe for chilli eggs with miso beans and spinach | Quick and easy

My go-to cheat ingredient for a dash of heat is White Mausu’s peanut rāyu – it has a gentler flavour profile than, say, Lao Gan Ma crispy chilli in oil, and works perfectly in this dish of creamy, lemon-spiked beans and eggs. I recommend using jarred white beans for the speediest cook time. For an easy, get-ahead breakfast, make and chill the spinach and beans the night before, then reheat the next morning and crack in the eggs when the beans are piping hot.Prep 10 min Cook 20 min Serves 2-32 tbsp neutral oil 2 onions, peeled and roughly sliced2 garlic cloves, peeled and finely grated200g baby spinach, roughly chopped570g jar white haricot or butter beans, drained and rinsed (400g net)2 heaped tsp red miso paste (white will work, too) 150ml single cream Juice of ½ lemonSalt (optional)2 eggs 2-3 tbsp White Mausu peanut rāyu, to tastePut the oil in a large, heavy-based saucepan on a medium heat, then add the onions and stir-fry for five minutes, until just colouring around the edges. Stir in the garlic, turn down the heat to low, then partly cover the pan and cook for five minutes, to soften