Financial markets now certain the RBA will hike interest rates in 2026

Financial markets are now pricing in a 100% chance the Reserve Bank will hike rates in 2026, in what would be a blow to mortgage holders but may take some steam out of an overheating property market.The latest forecasts represent a turnaround from just two weeks ago, when traders were factoring in an even chance that the next RBA move would be a cut by its May meeting.It comes as data showed inflation is now moving in the wrong direction, alongside this week’s national accounts and household spending figures which showed the economy is accelerating into the new year.Adam Donaldson, the head of interest rates strategy at the Commonwealth Bank, said “the market has come to the conclusion that the Reserve bank won’t be cutting rates any further”.“Basically, from February onwards, the market is starting to price some risk that rates will go up

UK first-time buyers in best position to snap up property in a decade, data shows

Buyers attempting to get on to the property ladder in the UK have received a lift, after figures from Halifax showed they are in the best position to snap up a home in a decade.Britain’s biggest mortgage lender said that the average price of a UK property hit a record high of £299,892 in November, after a marginal month-on-month rise.However, Halifax said when property prices were compared with average incomes, affordability was at its strongest since late 2015.The lender added that taking into account higher interest rates – the average two-year fixed mortgage rate is 4.85%, according to Moneyfacts – mortgage costs as a share of incomewere at their lowest level in about three years

Skipton in Yorkshire named happiest place to live in Great Britain

It is nicknamed “the gateway to the Dales”, is home to one of England’s best-preserved medieval castles and, for trivia fans, was the birthplace of half of Marks & Spencer. Now, the Yorkshire market town of Skipton has been named “the happiest place to live” in Great Britain.It received the accolade from the property website Rightmove, which runs a “happy at home” index that is now in its 14th year. The survey asks residents how they feel about their area based on a range of factors.With its picturesque location on the edge of the Yorkshire Dales, Skipton was ranked particularly highly for its access to nature and green spaces, the friendliness of the people and access to essential services such as schools and doctors

‘Tough market conditions’ hit UK half-year retail sales at Frasers Group

The owner of Sports Direct and Flannels has said sales have fallen at its UK retail businesses amid heavy discounting by rivals and “very subdued” consumer confidence.Frasers, which is controlled by the former Newcastle United owner Mike Ashley, said sales at its UK sports division were down 5.8% in the six months to 26 October to £1.3bn despite growth at the main Sports Direct chain because of “planned decline” at its Game outlets and the Studio Retail online arm.Michael Murray, the chief executive of Frasers Group, which also owns House of Fraser department stores, Jack Wills and dozens of other brands and a number of shopping centres, said “market conditions are tough” and “consumer confidence is very subdued”

Dryrobe wins trademark case against rival waterproof changing coat D-Robe

Dryrobe, the maker of huge waterproof towel-lined coats favoured by cold water swimming fans, has won a trademark case against a smaller label that must now stop selling items under the D-Robe brand within a week.A judge at the high court in London ruled the company was guilty of passing off its D-Robe changing robes and other goods as Dryrobe products and knew it was infringing its bigger rival’s trademark.The ruling described a Dryrobe as “an oversized waterproof coat with a towelled lining, designed for surfers or swimmers to change under whilst also drying them, keeping them warm, and protecting them from the weather”.The company has rigorously defended its brand against being used generically by publications and makers of similar clothing and is expected to seek compensation from D-Robe’s owners for trademark infringement.Dryrobe was created by the former financier Gideon Bright as an outdoor changing robe for surfers in 2010 and became the signature brand of the wild swimming craze

Budget uncertainty triggers plunge in UK construction activity; Trustpilot shares slump after short-seller claims – as it happened

Newsflash: Britain’s construction sector has suffered its sharpest downturn since the first Covid-19 lockdown forced building sites to shut five and a half years ago.Activity across housebuilding, commercial building work and civil engineering all tumbled last month, a new survey of puchasing managers at building firms has found.Construction firms are blaming fragile market confidence, delays with the release of new projects and a lack of incoming new work.The report, by data firm S&P Global, shows there was “a sharp and accelerated reduction in output levels across the construction sector”. Many builders reporting that market conditions were challenging, with new orders slumping at the fastest rate in five and a half years, and job cuts rising

Rachel Reeves will not be investigated over pre-budget briefing, FCA says

The UK’s financial regulator has decided not to immediately investigate Rachel Reeves and the Treasury over pre-budget briefings but left the door open for further examination of what the Conservatives claimed amounted to market manipulation.In a letter addressed to the chair of the Treasury committee, Meg Hillier, the the chief executive of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said the regulator had turned down requests by politicians including the shadow chancellor, Mel Stride, to open an inquiry into briefings made before last week’s announcement by the chancellor.Nikhil Rathi said the FCA had “not commenced an enforcement investigation” into potential market abuse, but added that the regulator would consider the findings of a Treasury inquiry into pre-budget leaks.On Wednesday, the Treasury minister James Murray said the department’s permanent secretary, James Bowler, would review “security processes” to inform future events. He said the inquiry had the “full support” of Reeves and the “whole Treasury team”

What has gone wrong at Zipcar – and is UK car-sharing market dead?

Rotherhithe Community Kitchen in south London has been delivering hundreds of cooked meals a week for the last two years to pensioners and vulnerable residents. Yet the volunteer group’s plans have been thrown into disarray by the news that they will not have access to cars and vans on New Year’s Day.The group had relied on Zipcar, the car-sharing company that offered customers the ability to access its fleet of vehicles from the street using an app. The company caused shock across London on Monday when it said it would shut down UK operations from 1 January.It will mean many of the volunteers will be unable to collect food from the Felix Project, a charity that gathers surplus food from supermarkets, cafes and restaurants

UK’s small brewers call for chancellor to think again on business rates

Brewers have joined calls for the chancellor to reconsider changes to business rates that it says could be “the difference between closure and survival” for pubs.In an open letter to Rachel Reeves, the Society of Independent Brewers and Associates, which represents about 700 beer makers, said it wanted to “express our deep concern at the impact of last week’s business rates decisions on the hospitality sector”.Many hospitality businesses are already battling lacklustre trade as consumers rein in spending on non-essentials amid higher household bills, food price rises and tax increases.In her budget last week, Reeves announced she was introducing “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties”, paid for with higher rates on the UK’s biggest businesses, including tech companies such as Amazon.The package included £3

Fossil-fuel billionaires bought up millions of shares after meeting with top Trump officials

Two fossil-fuel billionaires with close ties to Donald Trump bought millions of shares in the company they co-founded just days after a meeting with senior White House officials, who then issued a key regulatory permit that helped expand the company’s fortunes in Europe.Robert Pender, an energy lawyer, and Michael Sabel, a former investment banker, are the founders and co-chairs of Venture Global, a Virginia-based company that develops and operates liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals.Sabel was among about 20 people who attended an event in April 2024 at Trump’s private club, Mar-a-Lago, when he reportedly requested $1bn in campaign donations from the fossil fuel industry in return for favorable legislation. Venture Global was among the “top donors” to Trump’s inauguration, donating $1m, according to the Wall Street Journal.On his first day back in the White House, Trump issued an executive order rolling back regulations to favor fossil fuel production, including LNG export licences, while revoking existing climate and clean energy policies

Refinancing is delayed at Thames Water. If Ofwat is playing hard, it should keep going | Nils Pratley

A good 20 months have passed since the shareholders of Thames Water declared they wouldn’t be putting another penny into the “uninvestable” company and would rather take a thumping write-off of their investment.So surely, you’d think, we must be nearing the endgame in the attempt by the creditors – the people who lent money to Thames – to rescue the company via a debt write-down and a recapitalisation with new equity. After all, the 100-odd class A bondholders have been negotiating with Ofwat, the regulator, since June. Indeed, they started work on their proposal six months before that, in case the original preferred bidder, the US private equity group KKR, took fright at the political heat on Thames, which is what happened.But no, the water torture goes on

Advertising giant WPP relegated from FTSE 100 after nearly 30 years

WPP has been relegated from the FTSE 100 after nearly 30 years, as the advertising multinational struggles to stem an exodus of clients and match the artificial intelligence and data capabilities of rivals.The market valuation of WPP, once the world’s largest advertising group, has plummeted from about £24bn in 2017 to £3.1bn.The company’s share price has plunged by two-thirds this year and it has been relegated from the blue chip index after a quarterly reshuffle, confirmed when stock markets closed on Wednesday afternoon.British Land, which was the most valuable company in the FTSE 250, was promoted to the FTSE 100 to take the spot vacated by WPP

Jamie Oliver to relaunch Italian restaurant chain in UK six years after collapse

Jamie Oliver is to revive his Jamie’s Italian restaurant chain in the UK, more than six years after the celebrity chef’s brand collapsed.Jamie’s Italian is poised to be relaunched in the spring, starting with a restaurant in London’s Leicester Square.Oliver’s return to the UK restaurant scene is being backed by Brava Hospitality Group – the private equity-backed group that runs the Prezzo chain – which intends to relaunch the brand across the UK.“As a chef, having the chance to return to the high street is incredibly important to me,” he said. “I will drive the menus, make sure the sourcing is right, the staff training, and ensure the look and feel of the restaurant is brought to life in the right way

Helen Goh’s recipe for edible Christmas baubles | The sweet spot

These edible baubles make a joyful addition to the Christmas table or tree. Soft, chewy, marshmallow-coated Rice Krispies are studded with pistachios and cranberries, chocolate and ginger, or peppermint candy cane; they’re as fun to make as they are to eat, and they make a perfect little gift. To add a ribbon for hanging, cut small lengths of ribbon, then loop and knot the ends. Push the knotted end gently into the top of each ball while it’s still pliable, then reshape around it, so it holds the knot securely as it sets. Alternatively, wrap each bauble in cellophane, then gather at the top and tie with a ribbon, leaving a long loop for hanging

A gentle trade in edible gifts binds communities together

A guest at our restaurant recently told me about her mother’s seasonal side hustle, though no one would have dared call it that out loud: in the weeks before Christmas, she became a quiet merchant of puddings. The proper kind of pudding, too: all dense but not leaden, heavy with prunes and warm with careful spicing.As December crept in, forgotten cousins and semi-estranged uncles seemed to find reasons to drop by her place. She never advertised the fact, of course, but everyone knew that if you came bearing even a modest offering, you might just leave with a pudding wrapped in waxed paper and still warm with possibility. The exchanges were subtle

Chocolate tart and zabaglione: Angela Hartnett’s easy make-ahead Christmas desserts – recipes

When you’re the cook of the house, you spend quite enough time in the kitchen on Christmas Day as it is. And, after those time-consuming nibbles, the smoked salmon starter and the turkey-with-all-the-trimmings main event, the last thing you want is a pudding that demands even more hands-on time at the culinary coalface. For me, the main requirement of any Christmas dessert is that it can be made well in advance, not least because, by the time the pudding stage comes around, I’ll be completely knackered and more than ready to put up my feet and finally relax (or, more likely, fall asleep on the sofa).Prep 15 minRest 3 hr+Cook 40 minServes 6-8For the sweet pastry500g plain flour, plus extra for dusting 150g caster sugar 250g cold butter, diced2-3 eggs, lightly beatenFor the filling640g 70%-cocoa dark chocolate, broken into small pieces800ml double cream 64g glucose syrup 64g cold butter, cubed 100g roasted hazelnuts, lightly choppedPut the flour and sugar in a large bowl, stir to combine, then add the diced butter and work it in with your fingertips until the mix takes on the consistency of rough breadcrumbs. Add two of the beaten eggs, then mix until the dough comes together into a ball; if need be, add the third beaten egg, but take great care not to overwork the dough

I called my recipe book Sabzi – vegetables. But the name was trademarked. And my legal ordeal began

Vegetables, in my experience, rarely cause controversy. Yet last month I found myself in the middle of a legal storm over who gets to own the word sabzi – the Hindi, Urdu, Punjabi, Persian, Dari and Pashto word for cooked veg or fresh greens. It was a story as absurd as it was stressful, a chain of delis threatened me with legal action over the title of a book I had spent years creating. But what began as a personal legal headache soon morphed into something bigger, a story about how power and privilege still dominate conversations about cultural ownership in the UK.When the email first landed in my inbox, I assumed it must be a wind-up

Choice taste test: the best Australian supermarket Christmas ham is also ‘one of the cheapest’

Consumer advocacy group Choice has found when it comes to supermarket Christmas hams, pork price is not necessarily an indicator of quality.In a blind taste test of 12 Christmas hams from Aldi, Coles, IGA and Woolworths, the best and worst-ranked pork products retail at almost identical prices.The best-scoring product was the Coles Christmas Beechwood Smoked Half Leg Ham, with a price per unit of $8/kg. Judges awarded it a score of 80% and described it as a “good overall ham” for its “mild but pleasant” aroma with “a nice balance between sweet and smoky flavours”.The worst-performing product, the Aldi Festive Selection Australian Half Leg Ham On-The-Bone, is similarly priced at $7

How to turn excess nuts and seeds into a barnstoming festive pudding – recipe | Waste not

Last Christmas we visited my in-laws in Cape Town, where, at over 30C, a traditional Christmas pudding just didn’t feel quite right. But my mother-in-law and her friend created the most delicious feast: a South African braai (barbecue) followed by an incredible ice-cream Christmas pudding made by mashing vanilla ice-cream with a mix of tutti frutti, candied peel, raisins and cherries. This semifreddo is a take on that dessert: a light frozen custard that still carries all the festive flavours.Tutti frutti semifreddo Christmas puddingWe stopped using clingfilm in our kitchen 15 years ago now, because it’s not easily recycled and because of health concerns about the possible transfer of microplastics into our food. Most semifreddo recipes tell you to line the freezer container with clingfilm, but I suggest using no liner at all, or silicone-free, unbleached baking paper instead

The great Christmas taste test: I tried seven fast food offerings. Which will make me feel festive?

From a cranberry katsu curry to a dozen thickly glazed doughnuts, the biggest chains are getting Christmassy. I found out which seasonal meals will leave you carolling and carousing – and which will leave you coldBy now, most major fast food outlets will have launched their festive special. There is no established framework for what “festive” means, and no recognised metrics of Christmassyness. It could be indicated by a lurid green/angry red colour in a place you’re not expecting it (McDonald’s Grumble Pie, I’m looking at you); or an existing thing, made into a more seasonal shape, or the introduction of a quintessential Christmas ingredient, such as a brussels sprout (though seriously, food giants, get over yourself if you think it’s cinnamon – this is an autumn spice).I am not here to critique the essentials of fast food (I love it)

Party starters: Jacob Kenedy’s Italian Christmas canapes – recipes

Three Italian light bites to get you started on the big day: pinzimonio crudites, chilled prawns with boozy mayo, and a delicate frittata that you can stud with artichoke, radicchio or celeryI am evolving as a host, and coming to realise that those rich dishes that crown our festive tables shine brightest when surrounded by contrasting and lighter bites – before, around and after, rather than just on the day itself. I do enjoy angels and devils on horseback, devilled eggs, little sausages wrapped in bacon, mince tarts crowned with goose liver, fried breads and cheesy pizzette, buffalo wings, paté en croute, crab beignets, oysters Rockefeller, shrimp tostadas and rich tamales, but, for the most part, I save these for the parties earlier in December. For Christmas day itself, I start with lighter bites, as better preparation for the rich meal ahead. A trio of dainty, grazing canapes served alongside sparkling Alta Langa …My grandmother, Ginny, knew how to entertain. She would spike her mayonnaise with brandy, and so do I – at home and at my restaurant Plaquemine Lock

Australian supermarket sorbet taste test: is this the most enjoyable taste test yet?

After blind-tasting more than a dozen supermarket sorbets, Nicholas Jordan and friends award a rare nine out of 10 score to a magical iced confectionIf you value our independent journalism, we hope you’ll consider supporting us todayGet our weekend culture and lifestyle emailThe only bad sorbet I’ve ever had was made by me. If it wasn’t for that syrupy pineapple-flavoured stack of ice shards, I don’t think I’d be able to imagine the characteristics. What’s a bad version of winning the lottery? You’d only know when it happens.To make a bad sorbet you need to be inept or cheap. But supermarkets distribute the cheapest foods on earth and usually the range in quality is hellish to “huh, pretty good”

Christmas main course made easy: Max Rocha’s braised turkey legs with colcannon – recipes

Roast turkey breast is often dry and overcooked, so why not give everyone a leg instead and serve it with a traditional Irish potato-and-cabbage side?We often braise chicken and rabbit legs at Cafe Cecilia, because all the preparation and cooking can be done ahead of time, and it’s then just about heating them gently to serve. For Christmas, I often employ much the same process for turkey legs – it’s a lovely way to eat them. Serve with colcannon, although basmati rice, boiled new potatoes or roast carrots would also go great.This can easily be scaled up to feed more people – you’ll just need a larger pan.Prep 20 min Cook 1 hr 30 min Serves 2Sunflower oil Salt and black pepper 2 bone-in turkey legs 1 tbsp butter 5 garlic cloves, peeled and finely chopped2 shallots, peeled and halved 5 slices streaky bacon, diced8 sage leaves 70ml white wine60-100ml chicken stock ½ tbsp dijon mustard1 tbsp creme fraicheFor the colcannon500g large floury potatoes, peeled and cut into chunks

Christmas mains: Georgina Hayden’s pan-fried monkfish in a herby champagne butter – recipe

A fishy festive centrepiece that’s ready in next to no time but still has pizzazzWhile I tend to stick pretty close to tradition when it comes to my Christmas Day side offerings, I can’t remember the last time I cooked a turkey or goose as the showstopper. You see, my family is mostly made up of pescatarians, so anything larger than a chicken or cockerel (my personal favourite) for the meat eaters is just excessive. So, alongside a lovingly cooked smaller bird, I also make something fishy – hopefully something with a bit of star-quality, but not too shouty. A dish that will be delicious, fancy, but stress-free all at the same time. These pan-fried monkfish fillets are this year’s solution