UK faces £35bn hit and risk of recession this year over impact of Iran war, thinktank warns

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.With households facing a rise in energy costs linked to the Iran war, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said that “nothing is off the table” as the government considers options to provide a targeted and temporary support package.However, Britain’s oldest independent economic research institute said the government faced a multibillion-pound hole in the public finances amid a worsening inflation shock that would make it harder for Reeves to respond.David Aikman, the Niesr director, said: “This is a serious blow to the government’s mission to get the UK economy growing again

How the UAE’s decision to leave Opec could recast the Middle East

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding.But the timing and unilateral nature of the UAE decision shows how other intra-Gulf disputes over how to respond to the Iran war could recast the Middle East.The defection is, of course, a blow to Saudi Arabia’s prestige, since it positions the UAE as the Gulf state closest to Donald Trump, a long-term critic of Opec, and weakens the Saudis’ ability to manage the price of oil

Another shadow banking hit – but otherwise, Barclays looks fine

The Barclays boss CS Venkatakrishnan, having seen the bank hit in the space of six months by two high-profile blow-ups in the world of shadow banking, is pledging to take more care. “We are constraining lending to certain structured finance counterparties who operate more vulnerable business models and cannot convince us of the quality and independence of their financial controls,” he said.There’s an obvious response to that vow of greater vigilance: what were you doing previously? Wouldn’t it have been a good idea in the first place not to lend to high-risk outfits with unconvincing financial controls – for example, those with large mortgage exposures but small audit firms? There was, in other words, a sense in the chief executive’s comments of stable doors being shut rather too late.But here’s the other point about Barclays’ twin embarrassments: they are significant but not enormous in the grand scheme. The impairment charge in Tuesday’s first-quarter numbers for Market Financial Solutions (MFS), which collapsed in February amid allegations of fraud, was £228m

US gas prices surge to highest level in four years, averaging $4.18 a gallon

US gas prices rose to their highest level in four years on Thursday, reaching an average $4.18 a gallon at the pump as US-Israeli peace talks with Iran remain at a standstill.The last time average US gas prices breached $4.15 a gallon was in April 2022, when oil prices soared shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine. Average gas prices are now $1 higher than just a year ago, when they were closer to $3

UAE quits Opec in win for Trump as oil cartel weakened

The United Arab Emirates has quit the Opec oil cartel after 60 years of membership, in a heavy blow to the group and its de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, as global energy markets contend with the biggest supply crisis in history.The shock loss of the UAE, Opec’s third-largest oil producer, is expected to weaken the group, which for decades has worked together to use its collective oil production to influence global oil market prices.The UAE’s exit from Opec represents a win for Donald Trump, who has previously accused the organisation of “ripping off the rest of the world” by artificially inflating oil prices by holding back production.Last week Trump confirmed that the US had discussed extending a financial lifeline to the UAE under which the two countries’ central banks could agree to exchange equivalent amounts of each other’s currency should the Middle East crisis deepen.The UAE on Tuesday set out a plan to sever its ties to the cartel within days as the market enters the ninth week of the US-Israeli war on Iran – which has blocked a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil from flowing from Gulf producers through the strait of Hormuz, causing record oil market volatility

Singing activists disrupt NatWest meeting over ‘climate backtracking’

The chair of NatWest was forced to defend the bank against accusations of “climate backtracking” at a chaotic annual shareholder meeting, which was temporarily suspended owing to singing protesters.Not long after the meeting began in Edinburgh, it was adjourned for about half an hour after a protester interrupted Rick Haythornthwaite’s opening speech.Protesters in the audience, wearing black T-shirts emblazoned with “No more big oil” and “No bombs”, then sang a song to the tune of Frère Jacques, with a chorus of “No more bombs, no more oil”. They appear to represent the campaign group Extinction Rebellion’s XR Money Rebellion, which has targeted NatWest and other banks for financing fossil fuel projects.When the meeting resumed, it was dominated by questions from shareholders about NatWest’s climate policies, as well as staff wages compared with bumper executive pay packets

UAE quits Opec in ‘pivotal moment’ for oil producing group – as it happened

Newsflash: The United Arab Emirates has announced it is quitting the Opec group of oil producers.In an unexpected move, the UAE is leaving Opec and Opec+ (which includes allies such as Russia) from 1 May, a move which could allow it – in theory – to produce more oil and gas.The UAE’s energy ministry says in a statement that the decision “reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, and follows a “comprehensive review” of its production policy, and its current and future capacity.Opec, created back in 1960, agrees and sets production quotes for members in an attempt to control the oil price. The UAE is a long-standing member, having joined in 1967

Europe’s smaller airports ‘under threat’ if fuel shortages cause many cancellations

Europe’s smaller airports may not survive if jet fuel shortages triggered by the Middle East crisis lead to widespread route cancellations, the industry’s trade body has warned.Although airlines insist there are currently no supply problems within the normal four- to six-week horizon, the US-Israel war on Iran and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz have doubled the price of jet fuel, prompting some carriers to cancel flights.The Airports Council of Europe said regional airports were the most exposed and faced an “existential threat” if airlines cut capacity and raised fares, as demand on their routes was generally more price-sensitive – demonstrated when Lufthansa axed 20,000 summer flights operated by its regional subsidiary, CityLine.Olivier Jankovec, the director general of ACI Europe, said that smaller regional airports had still not recovered since the Covid pandemic, with traffic still 30% below 2019 levels, while larger ones had bounced back to growth.He said: “The current levels of jet fuel prices and the prospect of a new cost of living crisis mean that many regional airports across our continent are likely to face both a supply and demand shock

Barclays cuts back risky lending after £228m hit from UK mortgage firm MFS

Barclays is pulling back from lending to risky borrowers, as its chief executive warned of increasing numbers of fraud cases and the bank took a £228m hit from the failure of a mortgage lender.The mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions (MFS) collapsed in February amid allegations of fraud, and the UK’s financial regulator has since launched an investigation into the scandal.Barclays provided banking services to MFS and said the £228m hit had pushed total credit impairment charges to £823m in the first three months of 2026, up from £643m a year earlier.Last year the British bank reported a £110m loss over the US sub-prime auto lender Tricolor, which collapsed amid fraud allegations.The chief executive, CS Venkatakrishnan, said: “This [alleged] fraud, as with the one in Tricolor, indicates to us the importance of strong financial controls at borrowers and the difficulty ex-ante of identifying fraud

BP profits more than double as oil prices soar in Iran war

BP has provoked outrage by revealing its profits more than doubled in the first quarter of this year after its oil traders reaped the benefit of the war in Iran.The energy company capitalised on a surge in global oil market prices to report better than expected profits of $3.2bn (£2.4bn) for the first quarter, more than double the $1.38bn it made in the same period last year

Deloitte and Zoom’s trims to parental-leave benefits may hurt them in long run, experts say

Recent moves by US companies Deloitte and Zoom to reduce how much paid parental leave they offer employees could signal a larger reduction in benefits in corporate America, according to labor market experts.American workers are already seen as having less benefits and labor protections than many of their counterparts across the world, especially in Europe.Leadership at the huge accounting and communication technology companies probably made the decisions because the labor market has stagnated, meaning that people looking for jobs do not have the same leverage when considering a job opening, the experts say.But while cutting the benefit might help companies save money in the short term, some consultants argue that the moves will ultimately hurt companies because it will make workers less productive, among other negative consequences.“It feels like someone is just looking at a spreadsheet saying, ‘How can I get more hours?’” said Bobbi Thomason, a professor of applied behavioral science at Pepperdine Graziadio Business School

Shares in buy-to-let mortgage lenders fall after report Reeves plans rent freeze

Shares in some of the UK’s biggest buy-to-let lenders such as Paragon and One Savings Bank have fallen after it emerged that the chancellor may make private landlords commit to a one-year rent freeze.In an effort to protect households from rising living costs as a result of the Iran war, Rachel Reeves is considering whether to ban landlords in England from increasing rents for a limited period of time, the Guardian revealed on Monday night.Shares in buy-to-let lenders fell when the London Stock Exchange opened on Tuesday.Stock in OSB Group, one of the UK’s biggest buy-to-let mortgage providers, was down 3.6% at 510p as investors worried the rent freeze would hurt the FTSE 250 company behind the lenders Kent Reliance and Precise Mortgages

The truth about cooking oils: 14 essential facts for healthier, cheaper meals

From avocado to hemp, extra virgin olive and rapeseed, the shops are packed with various oils. But what is worth spending money on? And are any of them actually better for you? The world of cooking oils is confusing. I keep spotting new ones on supermarket shelves, trumpeting their health claims. Cold-pressed avocado oil, extra virgin macadamia oil, organic coconut oil, premium hemp seed oil … Even familiar oils are mired in controversy. Is it OK to cook with olive oil? Should you avoid seed oils? Meanwhile, prices keep rising – earlier this month, Walter Zanre, the CEO of Filippo Berio UK, said supermarkets were “taking the mickey” out of customers over olive oil pricing

The surprising boom in blouge wine: ‘It’s for 5pm, in the sun’

Twenty years ago, a winery could do well selling one white and two reds, says Konrad Pixner, a northern Italian winemaker who set up his vineyard, Domaine de L’Accent, in Languedoc, France, in 2019. But today, importers and bars always ask: “Do you have something new?” So up in the hills, surrounded by deep gorges and limestone plateaus, Pixner is constantly experimenting.After a good harvest in 2023, Pixner walked into the shed he shares with other winemakers at 4am to find that his biggest vat of white wine, pressed from carignan blanc grapes, had overflowed during fermentation. He had run out of space, so he quickly “pumped the white juice into the tank where whole bunches of carignan noir were,” he says, and left them to ferment for 10 days together. In contrast to rosé, made from red grapes left for a short time with their skins on before being pressed, he created “blouge” – a light, fresh wine blended from white and red grapes that’s best served chilled

How to make the perfect custard creams – recipe | Felicity Cloake's How to make the perfect …

Prue Leith reckons the custard cream is “arguably Britain’s most iconic biscuit” – and, certainly, we’ve been dunking this fern-patterned treat in our tea for well over a century, with early advertisements for this “delicious biscuit” placing it, perhaps aspirationally, in the “fancy” category. By 1920, Bermondsey baking behemoth Peek Frean could confidently declare the custard cream “far and away the most popular of all the cream sandwich biscuits”, a status only slightly dented by the time I was at school about seven decades later, when it sat just below its contemporary, the chocolate bourbon, in the playtime snack ratings.Despite my love of both custard and cookies, however, I’ve always found this particular custard-flavoured product a bit sugary and dull. As historian Lizzie Collingham explains in her magisterial book, The Biscuit: The History of a Very British Indulgence, it combines two early industrial foodstuffs, namely custard powder and machine-made biscuits, and though they may have been created in a factory, I think they’re much better made at home.Let’s be honest, the biscuit isn’t really the point of the packet variety – as children, we’d prise them open to scrape out the sugary filling, like bears sucking honey from a split log – but when you bake them yourself, it can be

Impala, London W1: ‘Shamelessly, brilliantly too much’ – restaurant review | Grace Dent on restaurants

Impala is like no restaurant I’ve ever been to, yet it somehow has echoes of almost all of themLate last month, Impala drove into Soho already flaming hot in the hype stakes: this was a sizzling booking to brag about even before executive chef and co-founder Meedu Saad had turned on the stoves. Impala, after all, is a Super 8 restaurant, the group that has, among others, Tomos Parry’s Brat in Shoreditch, which has been constantly, unfalteringly brilliant since 2018. It also runs Parry’s second baby, Mountain, which is likewise wonderful; sometimes weird, yes, but always wonderful. Long before that, back in 2016, they opened Kiln, the famed live-fire Thai counter hangout that cheffy boys in beanies have tried and failed to emulate all over Britain, while Super 8’s beginnings were with the boundary-pushing and much-loved Smoking Goat. That is nothing less than a litany of solid-gold bangers, and now they’ve unleashed Impala by Saad, the former head chef at Kiln

Ifrah F Ahmed’s debut cookbook is a love letter to Somali cuisine, history and people

On a video call from Brooklyn, between stops on her book tour, Ifrah F Ahmed is drinking ginger-root tea. The smell transports her to her childhood kitchen, where her mother often baked aromatic cardamom cake.“That’s a core childhood memory for me,” she said.For Ahmed, food isn’t just about sustenance. It is memory, inheritance and, perhaps most importantly, a record: “Somali history on a plate,” as she puts it

Lure of being a social media chef means youngsters forgoing classic training, Michelin star cook warns

Scroll through your timeline of choice and it won’t be long until you land on a video posted by a social media chef trying to send their recipes viral.Such is the popularity of cooking videos that everyone from Michelin star masters to self-taught beginners like Brooklyn Beckham are setting up tripods on their kitchen counters to capture the perfect cut, cuisson or crust on their culinary creations.But the lure of social media could, according to some industry figures,be causing young cooks forgo the formal training of a catering college.Will Murray, who worked at the double Michelin-starred restaurant Dinner by Heston before opening his own critically acclaimed venue, Fallow, said social media cooking videos sometimes stretch the boundaries of what is possible.“Social media has helped people get into cooking

Disco hit: Penne alla vodka, popular in New York 80s clubs, is now a menu staple

Despite most traditional Italians considering it sacrilegious, penne alla vodka is quickly becoming one of the most in-demand Italian dishes.Previously popular in suburban Italo-American restaurants during the 80s, the dish is now enjoying a widespread resurgence that is being driven by several factors including nostalgia and social media.Featuring a tomato and cream base with a splash of vodka, the silky smooth sauce sits somewhere between coral and carrot on the colour wheel. The Guardian’s Rome-based food writer Rachel Roddy describes it as “luxurious and a bit racy”.Dara Klein, a chef and founder of Tiella Trattoria in London, says the dish “hits lots of comforting notes”, comparing it to a slightly more grownup take on the Italian childhood favourite pasta al pomodoro which is “eaten from day dot”

Benjamina Ebuehi’s recipe for orange, grapefruit and bay jelly | The sweet spot

You’re never too old for jelly, and I think we should all be eating more of it. Unmoulding a jelly and immediately giving it a good wobble is by far the best bit, and makes me giggle every time. Infusing the mixture with fresh bay leaves brings a grownup feel and gentle, earthy notes. While jelly and ice-cream is a classic combination, I love this just with some lightly whipped, unsweetened cream.Prep 5 min Cook 20 min Infuse 30 min+ Chill 4 hr+ Serves 6Neutral oil for greasing220ml freshly squeezed red grapefruit juice (from about 2 grapefruit)700ml fresh orange juice (from about 8-10 oranges)4 fresh bay leaves120g caster sugar11 gelatine leaves (I use Dr Oetker platinum grade leaf gelatine) 200ml double creamLightly grease the insides of a 1 litre jelly mould with a little neutral oil – you can skip this step if you’re serving the jelly straight from a dish or bowl

‘As intense as perfume’: which eaux de vie are worth trying?

Nearly every European country has its own fruit brandy. Some are a bit agricultural so here’s a taste of the bestThe Guardian’s journalism is independent. We will earn a commission if you buy something through an affiliate link. Learn more.“I’ve had people burst into tears tasting these – it takes them straight back to a moment in their past

​Folded​, whipped or baked into something golden, ricotta ​i​s brilliant and adaptable

My record for making ricotta and lemon ring cake is three minutes and 42 seconds. That doesn’t include heating the oven or baking, or finding a recipe, which is in my head. It does include getting out the utensils (bowl, spatula, grater, scale, ring tin) and the ingredients (ricotta, olive oil, flour, sugar, baking powder, eggs, lemons), then speed-mixing everything in one bowl, scraping the batter into the tin and getting the tin in the oven via a discus throw. The timer is stopped as the oven door is closed. This is not relaxing cooking, it is entertaining cooking

Rachel Roddy’s recipe for almond and lemon spiced treacle tart | A kitchen in Rome

It wasn’t that dessert trolleys were banned in Italy during Covid, but guidelines from the Instituto Superiore di Sanità (national institute of health) were so (necessarily) rigorous around these “potential vehicles of the virus” that most places banished them to storerooms. Happily, many restaurants have since retrieved them from their long stay, so they glide or rattle between tables once more, or sit parked in an admirable position. This isn’t my first time mentioning the dessert trolley at La Torricella here in Testaccio, having written about its fabulous puff pastry and cream millefoglie in the past. But another dessert that might catch your eye as you enter the restaurant and look right at the cloth-covered trolley parked under the bar is what owner Augusto refers to as torta medievale, because of its spiced almond and dried fruit filling. It’s an unassuming but extremely good thing

I’m welcoming ​in spring ​with ​big ​Mediterranean ​flavours

A combination of the warmer weather, dusting off my sunglasses and the impending release of my new book, MEDesque (out on Thursday!), has got me fully focused on sunshine food and Mediterranean flavours. OK, so I’m not quite in rosé-in-the-garden territory just yet, but it’s close. And I am counting down the days. At home, I am leaning heavily on recipes from the queen of all things Med, Claudia Roden, to get my fix. Big hitters such as her bean stew with chorizo and bacon and chicken traybake with olives and boiled lemon deliver on all fronts, and immediately transport me to my favourite region