Mapped: the elections that could deliver ‘unprecedented’ losses for Labour

Labour is on track for its worst local election performance next Thursday, data analysed by the Guardian shows, in a blow that will pile further pressure on Keir Starmer’s leadership.Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote-share could fall to historic lows across elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with big gains for Reform, the Greens and nationalist parties, according to recent polling.The collapse in support is particularly existential in the race for the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, which Labour has dominated since its creation in 1999.Polling shows Labour’s vote share falling by more than half in Wales, enough to push the party into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first.Labour’s long-term decline in Scotland is expected to continue, with the Scottish National party likely to remain in power in Holyrood and Reform headed for second place

Could Starmer bring back Rayner to steady ship – and would she get onboard?

It is nearly eight months since Angela Rayner quit the cabinet because of her tax arrangements, but some might argue her influence on the government has not gone away. And soon she might return, whether as Keir Starmer’s saviour or, perhaps, his usurper.There is increasing speculation that the prime minister could carry out a small-scale reshuffle, primarily to bring back Rayner, his former deputy and one of Labour’s political heavyweights.This is by no means certain: Starmer is understood to have not yet made up his mind, and events depend in part on how significant a blow Labour is dealt in next week’s elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and to councils across England.Robert Hayward, the elections analyst and Conservative peer, has predicted Labour will lose 1,850 council seats on 7 May, above the 1,500 figure cited in one report as the possible trigger for a cabinet revolt

‘Reform is an acute threat to Scottish self-government,’ says John Swinney

Reform UK represents an acute threat to Scottish self government, John Swinney has warned, adding that nationalist victories in Scotland and Wales in May could “irrevocably change” the dynamics of constitutional debate across the UK.While the Scottish National party enjoys a comfortable polling lead ahead of the Holyrood elections next Thursday, recent polling has put Reform, led in Scotland by the millionaire and former Conservative peer Malcolm Offord, neck and neck with Scottish Labour for second place.Cruising towards an unprecedented fifth term, Swinney comes across as genuinely relaxed, as the SNP benefits from the fracturing of the pro-union vote offsetting lower approval rating for his government. Arguably the greatest threat all parties face is turnout, after a lacklustre campaign mirroring voter disengagement and an unusually high level of undecideds.Speaking to the Guardian, Swinney said: “The advent of Reform will bring in a sizeable number of [members of the Scottish parliament] who want to get rid of the place

Senior UK ministers deride Rachel Reeves’s reported plan of year-long rent freeze

Senior ministers have poured scorn on the idea of freezing private sector rents for a year, less than 48 hours after the Guardian revealed Rachel Reeves was considering it.Steve Reed, the housing secretary, and Matthew Pennycook, the housing minister, became the latest government figures to criticise the idea, which has since been ruled out by No 10.The government’s split over the idea has fed speculation about Reeves’ job after reports over the weekend that Keir Starmer was intending to sack her after the local elections.Keir Starmer failed to guarantee she would remain in place during Wednesday’s Prime Minister’s Questions, though Downing Street insists she retains the prime minister’s support.Pennycook said on Wednesday about the rent freeze: “We are not doing this

Nigel Farage referred to standards watchdog over undisclosed £5m gift

Nigel Farage has been referred to parliament’s standards watchdog after the Guardian revealed he received an undeclared £5m gift from a party donor.The referral was made by the Conservative party, citing rules that require MPs to declare any “personal benefit” they have received in the 12 months before taking office, and to do so within a month of being elected.The gift from the Thailand-based crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne fell within that period. Some personal gifts are exempt from the reporting rules if they “could not reasonably be thought by others to be related to membership of the house or to the member’s parliamentary or political activities”, according to the code of conduct and rules for MPs.The rules add: “Both the possible motive of the giver and the use to which the gift is to be put should be considered

Farage reported to parliament’s standards watchdog over undeclared £5m donation – as it happened

The Conservatives have announced that they are referring Nigel Farage to the parliamentary commissioner over the Guardian’s report saying he was given £5m by the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne shortly before announcing that he would be a candidate at the 2024 election.Kevin Hollinrake, the Tory chair, said:double quotation markAs a new member of parliament, Farage was obliged to report to the House of Commons all political donations and political gifts he had received during the previous 12 months.The Conservatives are today referring Nigel Farage to the parliamentary standards commissioner.This £5m from the crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne raises serious questions. What is Nigel Farage hiding? And why does Reform think the rules don’t apply to them? This stinks and Reform should come clean now

Given bonus PMQs tilt at Keir, Kemi fails to land a blow | John Crace

Today was never meant to have been this way. The plan had been to prorogue on Tuesday night ahead of next week’s elections and the state opening the week after. No need for Keir Starmer to face a last prime minister’s questions of the parliament. Time to catch his breath. Put his feet up

Farage’s attempt to get ahead of £5m gift story only raises more questions

Nigel Farage has admitted he received a personal gift of £5m from the Reform UK mega-donor Christopher Harborne shortly before the general election in 2024.He did not disclose that gift at the time and had made no mention of it since. That is, until Wednesday morning, when the Daily Telegraph published a story in which Farage admitted receiving the money from Harborne – saying it was for his personal security.It’s a startling disclosure that could lead to him being investigated by the parliamentary standards commissioner. But the manner in which it came out is insightful too

Lib Dems push for ban on MPs taking money from X, citing Maga threat

The Liberal Democrats are pushing for a ban on MPs accepting payments from X as part of a proposed wider crackdown on what Ed Davey will call a “serious threat” to UK democracy from Donald Trump’s US and other countries.Announcing the plan on Tuesday, the Lib Dem leader renewed his attacks on Reform UK – a series of whose MPs have taken money from X – calling it “a franchise of Maga politics” rather than a British political entity.Under proposed amendments to the government’s representation of the people bill, now going through parliament, there would also be a ban on anyone who has served in a foreign administration donating to UK political parties, thinktanks or campaign groups.This follows a promise by the US state department to fund parties and thinktanks seen as aligned with Trump’s hard-right agenda, particularly in Europe. The now-defeated Hungarian government of Viktor Orbán also supplied money to a series of rightwing thinktanks and political figures, including in the UK