Reeves clings to green shoots of recovery as UK economy flatlines
A return to economic growth, better-than-expected inflation figures, and breathing room in the bond markets.After a difficult start to the year for Rachel Reeves, there are at last a handful of positives to cling on to.For the chancellor, however, she will know talking up a few green shoots of economic recovery would be a dangerous game.The broad story from the economy is it continues to be flat, having eked out modest growth in November after two small monthly falls in output.It’s hardly surprising Reeves says she is “determined to go further and faster to kickstart economic growth”.
Growth of 0.1% in November is unlikely to be enough to avoid stagnation in the fourth quarter.After a similar performance in the third quarter, it lays the ground for an entire half-year without any progress on Labour’s primary mission.Combined with inflation sticking above the Bank of England’s 2% target, a period of “stagflation” beckons.With the chancellor under pressure after turbulence in the markets, turning this around has taken on added importance.
Even after Wednesday’s cooling inflation figures handed Reeves some breathing room, helping to sink the UK’s borrowing costs on the financial markets, the wider increase over the past few months still puts her in danger of breaking her self-imposed fiscal rules.The chancellor has considered deeper cuts to public spending in response, while investors warn tax increases could be required to balance the books.But stronger economic growth could help to fatten the tax receipts received by the Treasury.Turning around a flatlining economy is, though, unlikely to happen quickly.The government is prioritising investment in infrastructure and productivity-enhancing projects, as well as planning reform to kickstart a housing revolution.
However, while economists broadly agree this is the right thing to do, they also warn it could take years to bear fruit.Labour’s options for boosting growth are boxed in by its need to ensure fiscal responsibility.Business leaders warn that the £25bn increase in employer national insurance contributions announced in the budget will expend valuable management time that could be used to prioritise growth, and will also detract from their ability to invest.Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionThere are still some positives, though.The fall in inflation from over a peak of 11% in the second half of 2022 has brought a return of real wage growth, as earnings growth remains resilient, allowing households to begin repairing their finances.
The household savings ratio – a measure of disposable income – remains above pre-pandemic levels,After spooking consumers with gloomy rhetoric ahead of the autumn budget, which analysts say continued to weigh on activity in November’s GDP data, a return to confidence this year could help drive up spending,The Bank of England, too, could cut interest rates by more than expected in financial markets,Threadneedle Street’s newest policymaker, Alan Taylor, reckons rates may need to be slashed from the current level of 4,75% to as low as 3.
25%.It would be a mixed blessing if it happened, as it would partly reflect the weakness of the economy.But cheaper borrowing costs would help businesses and households to spend.After Reeves’s tough start to the year, it’s a turnaround the chancellor is in dire need of.
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