US inflation rises to 2.6% in October; Post Office closures put 2,000 jobs at risk – as it happened
Time to wrap things up,A key measure of US inflation has risen for the first time since March, underlining its bumpy ride down to lower levels,The consumer price index (CPI), which measures price growth across a basket of goods, ticked up to an annual pace of 2,6% in October – from 2,4% in September, which had been the slowest rate in more than three years.
Stripping out volatile food and energy costs, the closely watched “core” inflation index held firm at 3,3%,The reading was in line with economists’ expectations,Though inflation has fallen dramatically since peaking at a four-decade high in summer 2022, many Americans are still under pressure after years of price increases,Frustration over the cost of living appeared to play a major role in the election, with exit polls indicating that the majority of Republican voters were frustrated with the US economy and their financial situation.
On the campaign trail, Donald Trump proffered tax cuts and tariffs as solutions, but questions have been raised about what such policies will actually mean for inflation.The president-elect has pledged to enact tariffs of at least 10% on all US imports, a policy that many economists say would probably lead to inflation going up as much as 5.1%, according to the Budget Lab at Yale.The Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time in four years in September, a key turning point in its battle to bring down inflation.It lowered rates again last week, to their lowest level since February 2023.
At a press conference, the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, said the central bank “has gained confidence that we’re on a sustainable path down to 2%”, its target for inflation, but added: “The job’s not done.”The Fed has been trying to carry out its “dual mandate”, managing price increases without triggering higher rates of unemployment.The Post Office plans to close more than 100 branches and says about 2,000 jobs are at risk in a move that has been condemned by unions as “tone deaf and immoral” after the Horizon IT scandal.Our other main stories:Thank you for reading.We’ll be back tomorrow.
Take care – JKHere’s our full story on US inflation:Germany’s BioNTech has struck a $950m deal to buy Biotheus, a Chinese developer of cancer drugs, as it seeks to strengthen its oncology portfolio.Biotheus specialises in a type of immunotherapies to treat cancer that could outperform US drugmaker Merck’s blockbuster cancer treatment Keytruda.Mainz-based BioNTech, which became known around the world for developing one of the first Covid-19 vaccines during the pandemic when it partnered up with Pfizer, will pay $800m upfront to Biotheus, which is based in Guangdong province, followed by milestone payments of up to $150m.With the acquisition, BioNTech obtains full global rights to a treatment in late-stage clinical trials called BNT327/PM8002.Studies have shown “encouraging clinical activity in various tumour types” including in patients who have been less responsive to current, so-called checkpoint inhibitor treatments, the firm said in a statement.
The acquisition is the latest by a western drugmaker seeking to tap into innovation in China.Britain’s biggest pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca bought another Chinese cancer specialist, Gracell Biotechnologies for up to $1.2bn last December.Gracell is focused on a type of cancer therapy known as CAR-T that modifies a patient’s cells to fight the disease.Prof.
Ugur Sahin, chief executive and co-founder of BioNTech, said:We believe that BNT327/PM8002 has the potential to set a new standard of care in multiple oncology indications, surpassing traditional checkpoint inhibitors.Xiaolin Liu, president, chief executive and co-founder of Biotheus, said:We are thrilled to deepen our bond with BioNTech.We share the goal of advancing the development of BNT327/PM8002 for future combination therapies in the fight against cancer.The third consecutive 0.3% month-on-month gain in the core consumer prices index in October is not too concerning, said Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
However, he warned thatwith the incoming Trump administration seemingly intent on imposing import tariffs relatively quickly, the return of inflation to the 2% target may prove short-lived.Food prices went up by 2.1% year-on-year last month while energy costs fell by 4.9%, the breakdown of the latest US inflation figures showed.Inflation in the US has fallen sharply since reaching a peak of more than 9.
1% in June 2022, but progress has slowed in recent months.Gerrit Smit, manager of the Stonehage Fleming Global Best Ideas Equity fund, said:The marginal increase in headline US inflation to 2.6% is as generally expected.Barring any potential tariff effects later on, investors can rest assured that the Federal Reserve does not need to reconsider their easing pathway.Chief market strategist Charlie Bilello noted:US Core CPI has been above 3% for 42 straight month, the longest period of elevated inflation in the US since the early 1990s.
https://t.co/rQuXrxVpWs pic.twitter.com/NEEmT1S29MGerman economic journalist Holger Zschäpitz posted this chart on X:US Oct inflation report in line w/expectations.CPI accelerated to 2.
6% in Oct from 2,4% in Sep as expected,Core CPI remains unch at 3,3% in Oct in line,pic.
twitter,com/PIyWjv2jR2US inflation is bang in line with forecasts: the headline annual rate has picked up slightly to 2,6% in October from 2,4% in September,The core rate – which strips out volatile items like food and energy – held at 3.
3% last month, still a bit high for the Federal Reserve’s liking,The data, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be closely watched by the Fed, which has cut interest rates by 0,75 percentage points over two meetings to a target range of 4,5% to 4,75%.
Market analyst Jesse Cohen said:🚨 Just In: October US CPI annual inflation rises 2.6%, in line with expectations for 2.6%.Core CPI inflation increased 3.3% Y/Y, matching forecasts for a gain of 3.
3%.What will Jerome Powell do now? pic.twitter.com/cVRTaIqf6jThe dollar is hovering near a six and a half month peak against other major currencies, ahead of the US inflation data, out in a couple of minutes.UK farming minister Daniel Zeichner has been speaking at the Agricultural Industries Confederation conference.
He has been addressing farmers’ concerns about inheritance tax and the re-election of Donald Trump, who is said to want a free trade deal with the UK that would inevitably include cheap agricultural products – food and drink – which could undercut UK farmers.Zeichner said of a Trump trade deal:At the moment, we don’t know what’s going to happen, but our view, and I think it’s it is sensible view to take, is that we will always pursue the national interest of this country,He added that he was pleased the government recently agreed a deal to export beetroot to the US.He told the room there would be no changes to the threshold at which farms will be subject to inheritance tax.Treasury estimations suggest only 28% of farms will be hit by a tax bill when the owner dies, but Defra’s figures suggest it could be as high as 66%.Zeichner said that government was convening with experts to see “why the numbers are so different” and “what this will look like going ahead” but added there will be no change to the budget.
He said:We are not going to see any change to the budget.So what has disappointed me is that people have jumped to a series of extrapolations as to what will happen, rather than looking at the actual figures, what’s actually been happening.I’m afraid there’s a huge discrepancy in the figures from the actual claims on estates which the Treasury has administered increased in recent years, and some of the figures that others are using, and our officials are working on that, because there must be reasons why there are those discrepancies.Zeichner added that there is “no magic money tree,” and reiterated that there will be no changes to the inheritance tax threshold despite the anger from farmers.Thousands of people plan to descend on Westminster next week in a protest against the changes which they say will cause family farms to be sold off to pay inheritance tax bills.
Amazon Prime star Jeremy Clarkson is due to speak at the event as are some political figures yet to be confirmed.On the EU, Zeichner said the UK will not be realigning with the EU’s standards to reduce trade friction:This government has said that we want to renegotiate or improve our relationship with our near neighbours, the European Union.But quite a lot of the regulatory systems we have inherited are now beginning to diverge and just not through choice, but just because time is passing.And I very much appreciate the fact that for exporters, that poses potential challenges.Now, without going over the debate from the past, we are where we are, but I am charged by Keir Starmer with working with others to try and negotiate an improved veterinary agreement, and we will be trying to achieve that.
We must also respect the choice of British people made the referendum.It wasn’t my choice but that choice was made, and there are advantages, as we’ve seen, in terms of the fact that we’ve been able to move much more quickly on precision breeding.The chief executive of the UK defence company Babcock has said that he expects countries around the world to maintain or increase military spending after the election of Donald Trump as US president.David Lockwood said that he expected “all countries at least sustaining and maybe increasing” defence budgets, partly in response to pressure from Trump on the US’s Nato allies.When President Trump was around first time, if you ignored the rhetoric for his domestic audience, his message to Nato members was ‘I expect you to spend’ [what was committed].
Nato members are committed by treaty to spend the equivalent of 2% of GDP on military budgets.Some of the allies have not hit that target for several decades, but the combination of pressure from the US and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has prompted many countries to reassess their plans.“An unstable world is unfortunately good for defence budgets,” said Lockwood, speaking as Babcock announced an increase in operating profits for the six months to the end of September.Babcock, a member of the FTSE 250 index, has recovered from a period of turmoil to earn a steady stream of profits.It runs large parts of the UK’s defence operations, including training programmes and maintenance of the UK’s nuclear submarine fleet.
He said that the submarine infrastructure “definitely didn’t get the money it deserved” during the period of relative geopolitical calm around the turn of the century.“There is definitely a need for the recapitalisation” of Devonport, where Babcock maintains the nuclear fleet, Lockwood said.He added that the upgrade work at Devonport has been tricky while also doing work on the fleet, but insisted that previous regulatory concerns had now been addressed.He said:The Office for Nuclear Regulation would describe themselves as content with how we’re running Devonport.Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, said about Homebase’s woes:It’s been tough going in the home renovation market, as consumers have tightened their belts amid high borrowing costs.
Even though interest rates have begun to come down, homeowners have been ultra cautious, with bigger ticket items hard to shift,Some consumers appear to have been ring-fencing spending for holidays and experiences rather than major makeovers,Although a spurt of better weather later in the summer is likely to have helped propel sales of seasonal ranges, any improvement will have just been a sticking plaster on deeper rooted issues at Homebase,In the DIY space it’s faced tough competition from the likes of Kingfisher owned B&Q and Wickes which have also faced challenges in the market, but recently revealed guidance showing improvements,If the price is right though, shoppers are willing to splash the cash and value orientated chains like B&M European Value Retail and Home Bargains have been faring better.
The Range appears to have found a recipe for success with its pile ‘em high, sell ‘em cheaper approach to homewares, and appears to be mulling expanding its footprint by taking a chunk of Homebase stores,The future for others remains uncertain, although there may be other takers in the ‘value’ end of the home market, who could swoop in with a cut-price offer,Thousands of workers at the Homebase DIY chain face uncertainty over their future amid reports that the retailer is close to appointing administrators, with homeware specialist The Range poised to snap up some of its stores,Homebase is expected to appoint Teneo to handle an insolvency process for its UK arm, which has about 130 stores,The Range is reportedly planning to buy up to 75 Homebase stores including its Irish branches in a pre-pack sale, saving close to 1,500 jobs, as first reported by Sky News.
However, the future of some further 1,700 staff is uncertain with its remaining shops at risk of closure,The deal with The Range is expected to be announced later today and Teneo is expected to run a sales process for the remaining stores,Employees may be transferred to any new owner – if their store remains open,Homebase has been under pressure to win shoppers for some time, and its parent group HHGL made a loss of £85m in the year to January 2023, against an annual profit of nearly £56m a year earlier, after an 11% drop in sales,Homebase’s current owner, the turnaround specialist Hilco, reportedly put the chain back on the market this spring, six years after it bought it for £1 from the Australian retail group Wesfarmers in 2018