Is Australia headed for a recession? A growing number of economists think so. Here’s why I’m not one of them | Greg Jericho

As I write this, I sigh and realise that despite the president of the United States dropping his threats to commit war crimes and destroy Iranian civilisation, he is always a chance to set the world on fire because it’s been more than 20 minutes since he had a Diet Coke.This, of course, is hyperbolic. I think.Economies are tough enough to predict without having to deal with the erratic actions of one man.So take all of that into consideration

Shell oil trading profits soar amid Iran war but Qatar strikes hit gas output

Shell is expected to report “significantly higher” profits from its trading desks in the first quarter of this year after weeks of market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis.The surge in energy commodity markets over recent weeks is expected to drive up trading results at Shell’s chemicals and products unit, which includes its main oil trading desk.The global oil price has climbed from about $61 a barrel in January to highs of $119 at the end of March, including some of the biggest daily price moves on record, owing to major disruptions to flows of oil and gas through the strait of Hormuz.The market volatility provides an opportunity for traders to make large profits, but also presents a risk of heavy losses.In addition to Shell’s oil trading windfall, it is also expected to report higher trading profits from its renewable energy division

Oil prices plunge 15% to below $100, stocks surge and dollar slumps after Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire – as it happened

Markets have been cheered by news of the two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel and Iran. However, this excludes Lebanon, where Israel has carried out its biggest wave of air strikes today since the war there began on 2 March.Iran has agreed to reopen the strait of Hormuz, where around 1,000 ships have been trapped. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Tehran could open the key shipping route on Thursday or Friday ahead of peace talks in Islamabad.Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, has tumbled 15

Close Brothers shares surge after UK bank says it can ‘comfortably absorb’ cost of car finance compensation

Close Brothers shares surged on Wednesday after the UK bank declared it could “comfortably absorb” its slice of a £9.1bn compensation bill over the motor finance scandal, hours after one of its rivals announced it was selling its UK operations over looming costs.The specialist lender said it expected the final terms of the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) compensation scheme to cost roughly £320m, a sum that was “broadly similar” to previous estimates and the £294m put aside to date.Close Brothers said the extra £26m could be “comfortably absorbed by existing capital resources, leaving the group well positioned to continue delivering its strategy”. The news sent its shares up by 17% by early afternoon on Wednesday

Maritime and port workers: how is the Middle East conflict affecting you?

The conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt shipping across the region, including in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s busiest maritime routes.The US and Iran have agreed to a provisional two-week ceasefire, which includes a temporary reopening of the strait. But maritime traffic through the narrow channel linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman remains affected, with vessels still facing delays, diversions and heightened security risks as the situation evolves.Ports and shipping companies are continuing to operate amid uncertainty, while cruise ships carrying thousands of tourists have faced disruption across the region.We would like to hear from maritime workers, port staff and shipping crews about how the situation is affecting your work

‘We can’t increase prices any more’: UK hospitality firms hit by cost triple blow

Nick Evans is staring in vain at columns of numbers, trying to make them add up to a profit. He is a co-owner of the Old Crown Coaching Inn in Faringdon, Oxfordshire, a pub and hotel whose rich history is etched into its crooked wooden beams and cosy snugs.Oliver Cromwell stayed here in 1645. A room believed to have been used by the notoriously severe “hanging judge” Lord Jeffreys to condemn rebels now stages happier encounters: it is the honeymoon suite.As a former City trader, Evans is no stranger to profit