UK inflation rises to 2.3%, increasing pressure to delay interest rate cut
Inflation could rise above 3% next year after it increased to 2.3% in October, heaping pressure on the Bank of England to delay further interest rate cuts until the spring.Figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday showed that a rise in energy bills pushed up the consumer prices index (CPI), reversing a downward trend this year in inflation, which was 1.7% in September.The figure for the year to October was slightly above the 2.
2% City economists had expected.The ONS said higher gas and electricity prices were offset by lower oil prices, which reduced the transport and raw materials costs of manufacturing businesses.Falls in the price of theatre and live music tickets also helped to limit the fastest month-on-month increase in prices since October 2022, at 0.6%.The quarterly energy price cap rose by 10% to £1,717 in October, and the cap is forecast to rise again in January, to put the average annual bill at £1,736.
Retailers have said measures announced in Labour’s budget last month would ultimately lead to higher prices, and the tax rises have already hit consumer confidence.Suren Thiru, the economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said the figures confirmed “a disappointing resurgence in inflation” as the benefits of falling energy costs last year reversed to become a headwind.“Inflation should drift gradually higher from here, with rising energy bills, the impact of the budget and global trade frictions likely to keep the headline rate hovering above the Bank of England’s 2% target until well into 2025.”Policymakers at the Bank, who are tasked with keeping inflation near 2%, have cut interest rates twice to 4.75%, but a further reduction at a meeting in December is likely to be put off until at least February.
A leading thinktank said persistent wage pressures would push the CPI above 3% next year, leading to a slower pace of interest rate reductions during 2025.The National Institute for Economic and Social Research said: “While we think the Bank of England will continue to cut rates in 2025, the pace of rate cuts is expected to be slower than previously anticipated, and rates may stay elevated for longer.”Underlining the uncertainty surrounding the path of inflation over the next year, the Bank policymaker Dave Ramsden said the underlying weakness of the recovery would allow inflation to stay near 2%.In a speech at Leeds University business school, Ramsden said that while it was possible inflation would be higher than the 2% target next year, “my overall assessment is that the economy will continue to normalise, with the recent trend towards low and relatively stable inflation continuing”.Financial markets now see the probability of a rate cut next month at about 16%.
Sign up to Business TodayGet set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morningafter newsletter promotionCore inflation increased from 3.2% to 3.3%, confounding a consensus forecast for a small fall to 3.1%, and services inflation rose from 4.9% to 5%.
Ruth Gregory, the deputy chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics, said much of this overshoot was because of a sharp jump in air fares inflation, reflecting the biggest rise in ticket prices in October since monthly collection began in 2001.James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation, said the rise in core inflation, services inflation and energy prices amounted to “a triple dose of bad news”.“After recent lower-than-expected price rises, today’s data is a reminder that the long tail of elevated inflation from the cost of living crisis is still in the economy,” he said.Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “We know that families across Britain are still struggling with the cost of living.That is why the budget last month focused on fixing the foundation of our economy so we can deliver change.
That includes boosting the national minimum wage, freezing fuel duty and protecting working people’s payslips from higher taxes.”Rising prices have eaten into consumer spending power over the last three years, and by more in the UK than other big economies.Figures have previously shown that, from January 2021 to May 2024, UK consumer prices increased by 22.8% in total, compared with 20.9% in Germany, 18.
8% in the US and 16.6% in France.Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said it was important that the government kept inflation low.“What is worrying about today’s announcement is that inflation is running ahead of expectations and official forecasts state these figures are not expected to improve.Labour’s budget will push up inflation and mortgage rates.
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Pensioners in England and Wales: how has losing the winter fuel allowance affected you?
With the loss of the winter fuel allowance potentially forcing 100,000 pensioners in England and Wales into relative fuel poverty, we would like to find out more about how losing the payment has affected people.What impact has it had on you and what changes have you made to make up for no longer receiving the winter fuel payment?You can tell us how no longer receiving the winter fuel allowance is affecting you by filling in the form below.Please include as much detail as possible. Please note, the maximum file size is 5.7 MB
Australian women to get home self tests for chlamydia and gonorrhoea – but experts urge caution
With rates of some sexually transmitted infections in Australia on the rise, women will soon be able to test themselves for chlamydia and gonorrhoea at home – but sexual health experts have urged caution.Australia’s drugs regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), has approved the rapid home test for sale, and it is expected to be available in pharmacies from 13 December, with a recommended retail price of $24. The test involves taking a vaginal swab, which is then placed in a container with testing solution.Sign up for Guardian Australia’s breaking news emailDr Sara Whitburn, the deputy medical director at Sexual Health Victoria, said while greater access to testing is crucial for reducing transmission of sexually transmitted infections, and new initiatives to encourage testing are welcome, there are important caveats around the home test.“It’s important to note that the test is validated only for vaginal samples, meaning it cannot be used to screen for oral or anal chlamydia and gonorrhoea,” she said
The horror and history of drug-facilitated rape: ‘When I woke up my body felt battered’
Gisèle Pelicot waived her anonymity to put drug-facilitated rape in the spotlight, and her experiences of sexual violence have shocked the world. So what else do we know about this most hidden of crimes?A magistrate and HR executive in her late 50s, settled, single, not dating or sexually active, Jo felt that her risk of becoming a victim of rape had passed, or was certainly low – and that drug-facilitated rape in particular was something that happened to young people, in clubs, at parties, “on the apps”. When it happened to her two years ago, it was her adult son who had to make sense of it, and explain why she’d woken up naked beside a man she had no feelings for, blood on the bed, pain between her legs, her memory of that night a blank space.Her rapist was someone she had known since secondary school, a former classmate who, until that week in November 2022, she hadn’t seen since their final A-level. At some point, he had emigrated and then connected with Jo (not her real name) through Friends Reunited
Wes Streeting orders review of physician associates’ role in NHS
Wes Streeting has ordered a review of what physician associates (PAs) do in the NHS, amid growing alarm in the medical profession about patient safety.It will examine the safety of their roles and how patients should be made aware that, despite their titles and ability to diagnose illness, they are not doctors and can only perform certain tasks.The health secretary has appointed Prof Gillian Leng, an expert in evidence-based healthcare and former chief executive of the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, to lead the review.About 3,500 PAs and about 100 equivalents who work in anaesthesia – called anaesthetic associates – are working in hospitals and GP surgeries in England. Taken together the number of “medical associate professionals” (MAPs), as they are known in the NHS, is due to treble to about 10,000 by 2037 under the service’s long-term workforce plan
Physical fitness can lower risk of dementia, research finds
Being physically fit can lower the risk of dementia and delay someone developing it by almost 18 months by boosting brain health, research has found.Regular exercise is so useful for maintaining cognitive function that it can even help people who are genetically more predisposed to dementia to reduce their risk by up to 35%.The findings add to the evidence that staying fit during the course of one’s life is a key way of lowering the likelihood of developing the disease.The study, published in the British Journal of Sports Medicine, found that people with the highest cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) also had higher cognitive function and a lower risk of dementia.The researchers analysed the health of 61,214 people who were aged between 39 and 70 when they enrolled in the UK Biobank study between 2009 and 2010, none of whom had dementia at the time
Winter fuel payment cuts may force 100,000 pensioners ‘below poverty line’
Cuts to the winter fuel allowance could force 100,000 pensioners in England and Wales into relative fuel poverty, government analysis has shown, as ministers come under mounting pressure over measures in last month’s budget.Internal government modelling shows the decision to remove the benefit from millions of pensioners will push about 50,000 more people into relative poverty next year, and another 50,000 by the end of the decade.The figures, which are rounded to the nearest 50,000, take into account the impact of housing costs, but not of thousands more people claiming pension credit since a government campaign earlier this year.The analysis was published in a letter from Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, on Tuesday, just as temperatures plunged and parts of the UK experienced their first snowfall of the year. The letter also coincided with a large-scale protest by farmers in Westminster, with thousands turning up to demonstrate against a rise in inheritance tax for agricultural properties
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