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UK faces £35bn hit and risk of recession this year over impact of Iran war, thinktank warns

Britain is facing a £35bn economic hit and the risk of a recession this year as the fallout from the Iran war adds to the pressure on Keir Starmer’s government, a leading thinktank has warned.The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said that even under a best-case scenario the UK economy would grow at a much slower pace this year and next because of the Middle East conflict.With households facing a rise in energy costs linked to the Iran war, the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, has said that “nothing is off the table” as the government considers options to provide a targeted and temporary support package.However, Britain’s oldest independent economic research institute said the government faced a multibillion-pound hole in the public finances amid a worsening inflation shock that would make it harder for Reeves to respond.David Aikman, the Niesr director, said: “This is a serious blow to the government’s mission to get the UK economy growing again

about 7 hours ago
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How the UAE’s decision to leave Opec could recast the Middle East

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to walk out of Opec is a political as much as business decision, and will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia – which had been covered up by their shared anger with Iran over its attacks on the Gulf states since the start of the US-Israel war on Tehran.In the short term, leaving the oil producing cartel it joined in 1967 gives the UAE the freedom to respond quickly to a long-term prospect of constrained supplies, and to maximise profit. But it is a decision the UAE has considered before, as UAE and Saudi tensions over production quotas have been longstanding.But the timing and unilateral nature of the UAE decision shows how other intra-Gulf disputes over how to respond to the Iran war could recast the Middle East.The defection is, of course, a blow to Saudi Arabia’s prestige, since it positions the UAE as the Gulf state closest to Donald Trump, a long-term critic of Opec, and weakens the Saudis’ ability to manage the price of oil

about 11 hours ago
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‘Stole a charity’: Elon Musk accuses Sam Altman of betrayal in courtroom showdown

The trial pitting Elon Musk against Sam Altman and OpenAI began in dramatic fashion on Tuesday with opening arguments and the richest man in the world taking the stand to testify. Attorneys for the two tech moguls presented a California jury with two wildly different versions of the AI company’s history, while Musk accused his billionaire rival of endangering humanity through corporate deception.Musk’s suit argues that Altman, OpenAI and its president, Greg Brockman, broke a foundational agreement to better humanity when the non-profit pivoted towards a for-profit structure. In his opening statement, Musk’s attorney said Altman and Brockman “stole a charity”. Musk, who left OpenAI in 2018 after co-founding it with Altman and Brockman three years earlier, also alleges that his co-founders unjustly enriched themselves as the company raised billions of dollars and grew into the AI behemoth it is today

about 8 hours ago
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UK must seize initiative on AI or be left at its mercy, Liz Kendall says

Britain must seize the initiative on artificial intelligence or be left at the “mercy and whim” of a future shaped by the technology, Liz Kendall has said.The technology secretary said the country must have greater control over the industry as she highlighted big tech’s grip on its development, with 70% of the world’s AI computing power provided by US companies.In a speech on the UK’s ability to develop its own capabilities, Kendall said: “The choice isn’t between a world that has AI and one that does not. It is a choice between a world where we shape our AI future, based on our own interests and values, or where we are left at its mercy and whim.”Kendall highlighted the launch this month of a state AI investment fund as evidence of Labour’s support for domestic firms, and revealed the government was drawing up a plan to become more influential in designing and manufacturing the chips that power AI systems

about 13 hours ago
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West Ham urged to show ‘heart and soul’ over London 2029 World Athletics bid

The head of the London Marathon has urged West Ham to show more “heart and soul” amid fears they could scupper Britain’s chances of hosting the 2029 World Athletics Championships.While London’s bid is seen as the favourite, it has hit a major stumbling block with West Ham refusing to give up their stadium for around two weeks in September 2029 because the football season will be under way.Hugh Brasher, who is part of the London 2029 bid team, admitted that the situation was further complicated by the Hammers facing relegation and the departure of the club’s vice-chair, Karren Brady.“Football is an interesting, very tribal, sport,” said Brasher. “Money talks

about 16 hours ago
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‘It’s a gamechanger’: Lewis Hamilton’s groundbreaking Mission 44 recruits working in F1

Sports people can be more than the sum of their athletic achievements. Lewis Hamilton stands unquestionably as one of the greatest drivers in the history of Formula One having delivered records and outstanding performances that will be hard to surpass. Yet it is indicative of his character that the seven-time world champion rates them all as sitting only alongside what might ultimately be his most significant and long-lasting legacy. His Mission 44 foundation is making an indelible impact on the makeup of motorsport.“Talent is everywhere, opportunity isn’t and that’s what we’re here to change

about 18 hours ago
politicsSee all
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Drop the ‘toxic hot potato’: what Barton and McSweeney really revealed about the Mandelson scandal

about 13 hours ago
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Shabana Mahmood’s frustration with immigration debate is understandable | Letter

about 13 hours ago
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America has special relationship with Israel now, UK’s new US ambassador says

about 14 hours ago
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Morgan McSweeney does no lasting damage to Starmer in grilling by Emily Thornberry | John Crace

about 14 hours ago
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McSweeney admits pressuring Foreign Office to expedite Mandelson role

about 16 hours ago
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What did Morgan McSweeney and Philip Barton tell MPs about Mandelson’s vetting?

about 16 hours ago