Ouch! US consumers’ economic expectations have slumped at the fastest rate since the 1990s recession.A closely-watched poll of consumer morale, from the University of Michigan, has found that economic expectations have fallen by a “precipitous” 32% since January, which they say is the biggest three-month drop since the economic downturn 35 years ago.The survy also found that consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month in April, plunging 8% from March, driven by a tumble in expectations.The final April sentiment index fell to 52.2 from 57 in March.

That’s the fourth-lowest reading in data back to the late 1970s, Bloomberg reports.Sentiment is 32% lower than a year ago, the survey show.Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu says:Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recessionWhile this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation.Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.Labor market expectations remained bleak.

Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead,Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers,The poll also found that Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5,0% last month to 6,5% this month, the highest reading since 1981.

The University of Michigan also provided a handy chart, showing how inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month,They say:After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March,The final April numbers are out today from the Univ,of Michigan consumer sentiment index,Here are the month-over-month changes by party.

Republicans +2.8Democrats -6.9Independents -9.5 pic.twitter.

com/vtvNdZ5ceRWith the London stock market closed, it’s time to wrap up for the day, and the week!A brisk recap:US consumer sentiment has fallen to one of the lowest readings on record, as Americans fear that Donald Trump’s trade war will drive up prices and slow the economy.China has denied it is in talks with the US about a trade deal… after Donald Trump claimed the two sides were negotiating.China and the U.S.are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs.

The U,S,should stop creating confusion,pic,twitter.

com/OrapuQzJRWBut there are also signals that Beijing is lifting some tariffs, to de-escalate the situation.Top policymakers in Beijing also pledged to support firms and workers most affected by the impact of new US tariffs.In London, the FTSE 100 index has posted its longest winning streak in over five years.Our US Politics blog will be tracking the action:Here’s our economics editor Heather Stewart’s take on this week’s Spring Meeting of the IMF in Washington.And here’s a flavour:Kristalina Georgieva’s favourite film, the International Monetary Fund boss told the audience at a packed panel event in Washington on Thursday, is Tom Hanks’s cold war romp Bridge of Spies.

In one of the stranger digressions in a frequently strange week, Georgieva recalled the moment when Hanks’s character, a US lawyer, tells the Soviet spy he has been appointed to defend that he will probably be executed,“You don’t seem alarmed,” Hanks says to him; to which the spy – played by Mark Rylance – replies, “Would it help?”Georgieva mentioned the vignette to underline the fact that this week’s spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank were not swept up in panic, despite the mayhem emanating from the Trump administration,Britain’s stock market has just posted its longest run of daily gains in over five years,The FTSE 100 index of blue-chip shares has closed almost 8 points higher tonight at 8415 points, a rise of 0,09%.

That means it has now risen for 10 sessions in a row, having climbed from 7679 points on 9 April.That’s the longest winning run since 2019, when Boris Johnson’s election win sparked a relief rally.Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, says the UK market has benefitted from a broad relief rally, but there’s more to it than that…Wilson writes:The news flow on tariffs has been incrementally more positive, while the Fed has hinted at being ready to cut rates in the coming months.But it’s also the case that the FTSE has a lot of defensive characteristics - we’ve noted earlier that there are plenty of stocks with hefty dividend yields that can be viewed as a place of relative shelter from instability and volatile markets.It should be noted that when markets are stressed, capital preservation becomes even more important and some big dividend payers could be attractive.

The relative shelter from volatility is highlighted by the fact that in the period since April 9th, while the FTSE has made slow and steady progress, the S&P 500 has seen one daily decline of almost 3.5%, and two more in excess of 2%.The FTSE 100 may be like an old blanket that you can wrap yourself in when times are tough and the shiny stuff breaks.It may also be that the UK is benefiting from a broad reallocation of global capital from the US to elsewhere.It’s noteworthy that in the same two-week period from April 9th closing low, sterling has gained about 4.

5% against the dollar.In dollar terms the FTSE is up about 15% since the lows after recovered its pre-liberation day equilibrium.Back in Washington, Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene has predicted that Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to lead to lower rather than higher inflation in the UK.Greene told a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s spring meeting that:“We have tariffs, and none of us have any idea what they’ll look like when the dust finally settles,”“In my mind, the risk space has changed a little bit.So I think the risk is now on the disinflationary side.

So I think that tariffs on the UK would, on net, be more disinflationary than they are inflationary.”Greene, one of the hawkish members of the Bank’s monetary policy committee, also said she was concerned about weak growth.Factcheck: Tariffs could be deflationary in two ways.First, a global trade war could dampen economic growth, leading to weaker demand.Second, companies hit by US tariffs could ship more goods to other countries, such as the UK, and cut prices to be competitive.

On the other hand, if the UK retaliated with its own tariffs, then that would push price up,Ouch! US consumers’ economic expectations have slumped at the fastest rate since the 1990s recession,A closely-watched poll of consumer morale, from the University of Michigan, has found that economic expectations have fallen by a “precipitous” 32% since January, which they say is the biggest three-month drop since the economic downturn 35 years ago,The survy also found that consumer sentiment fell for the fourth straight month in April, plunging 8% from March, driven by a tumble in expectations,The final April sentiment index fell to 52.

2 from 57 in March,That’s the fourth-lowest reading in data back to the late 1970s, Bloomberg reports,Sentiment is 32% lower than a year ago, the survey show,Surveys of Consumers director Joanne Hsu says:Expectations have fallen a precipitous 32% since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline seen since the 1990 recessionWhile this month’s deterioration was particularly strong for middle-income families, expectations worsened for vast swaths of the population across age, education, income, and political affiliation,Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.

Labor market expectations remained bleak.Even more concerning for the path of the economy, consumers anticipated weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead.Without reliably strong incomes, spending is unlikely to remain strong amid the numerous warnings signs perceived by consumers.The poll also found that Americans’ year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 5.0% last month to 6.

5% this month, the highest reading since 1981.The University of Michigan also provided a handy chart, showing how inflation expectations evolved with major trade policy announcements this month.They say:After the April 9 partial pause in tariff increases, inflation expectations ebbed but remained substantially elevated relative to March.The final April numbers are out today from the Univ.of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

Here are the month-over-month changes by party,Republicans +2,8Democrats -6,9Independents -9,5 pic.

twitter.com/vtvNdZ5ceRThere’s a mixed start to trading on Wall Street today, as investors try to work out what’ happening in the trade war.The Dow Jones industrial average, of 30 large US companies, has dipped by 22 points or 0.05% to 40,070 points.The broader S&P 500 index is up 0.

2%, though,Traders could take some comfort from signs earlier today that China is looking to de-escalate the situation, by removing some tariffs,However, they may be concerned that China has denied that it is in talks with the US about tariffs,A foreign ministry statement posted by the Chinese Embassy in the US says:“China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs,The US should stop creating confusion.

”China and the U.S.are NOT having any consultation or negotiation on #tariffs.The U.S.

should stop creating confusion.pic.twitter.com/OrapuQzJRWThat rather undermines Donald Trump’s claim to Time Magazine that his administration is in active talks with the Chinese to strike a deal.Oooh! Back in the London stock markets, shares in Marks & Spencer have dropped by 4% after it announced it is pausing taking online orders in the UK and Ireland due to a recent ‘cyber incident’.

M&S told the City:As part of our proactive management of the incident, we have made the decision to pause taking orders via our UK & Ireland websites and apps and some M&S International operated websites.The M&S product range is available to browse online, and our stores remain open and ready to welcome and serve customers.We continue to manage the incident proactively and the M&S team - supported by leading experts - is working extremely hard to restore online operations and continue to serve customers well.Earlier this week, M&S apologised to customers after a “cyber incident” affected contactless payments and the pick up of online orders in it stores in recent days.M&s says today that there is still no need for customers to take any action, which may indicate that personal data has not been accessed.

The Bank of England is going to test how the City’s crucial financial plumbing would cope with a serious trade war.The Bank revealed today that this year’s test of central counterparties will involve a scenario involving a market panic about a trade war and a sovereign debt crisis.Central Counterparties (CCPs) act as an intermediary between buyers and sellers in financial transactions, and are the counterparty to both sides of the trade.The Bank will kick the tires on three – all three UK authorised CCPs – ICE Clear Europe Limited (ICEU), LCH Limited (LCH), and LME Clear Limited (LMEC).The Bank says:The Stress Test will be centred on a bespoke ‘Baseline Market Stress Scenario’, designed by the Bank