Do those so-called US recession indicators actually mean anything? | Gene Marks

As someone who keeps a close eye on the economy, I often bump into those strange metrics that people like to write about that, supposedly, unlock the secret of whether or not a recession is looming.Given what’s going on, it’s no surprise that they are back again. Just last week Bloomberg reported a cut in spending at hair stylists. There’s the “lipstick index” – in tough economic times, women load up on lipstick instead of spending their dwindling funds on bigger-ticket items. Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan liked to follow men’s underwear sales because hey, when times are tough, we guys are not willing to buy new shorts

Jim Ratcliffe’s chemicals business under pressure from Trump tariffs, Moody’s warns

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s loss-making chemicals business could take longer than expected to recover its financial health because of Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, analysts have said.The billionaire industrialist has faced growing concerns over the state of his chemicals group amid problems with his business interests in Manchester United and All Blacks rugby.In a fresh cause for concern, one of the key companies within Ratcliffe’s sprawling business empire, Ineos Quattro, has reported that its financial losses more than doubled to €819m (£702m) at the end of last year, from €291m in 2023, its first loss in at least five years.The chemical company, which supplies a range of industries including carmakers and pharmaceutical companies, said in its annual report that its “substantial indebtedness” crept almost half a billion euros higher during 2024 to reach nearly €7.7bn

Labour must focus on risk to global financial stability posed by Trump policies, not only trade | Heather Stewart

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have underlined how much the world has changed after Donald Trump’s “liberation day”, with the UK prime minister even declaring an end to globalisation.But as the chancellor prepares to fly to Washington this week to meet her global counterparts at the International Monetary Fund meetings, Labour appears to see the risks purely in terms of the hit to international trade.While frantically negotiating with Washington over tariffs, the government is pressing ahead with plans to deregulate the City – just as global financial stability appears threatened by the chaos unleashed by the White House.Labour has taken a muscular approach to saving the steelworks in Scunthorpe, and Reeves has written of the need for a “strong, smart and agile state to support key industries”.Yet Labour’s stance on the UK’s highly globalised financial sector appears to remain the one set out in the chancellor’s Mansion House speech in November: that rules imposed after the 2008 crash have “gone too far”

Another crisis, another IMF summit: but unlike 2008, the delegates are disunited

When the world’s finance ministers and central bank governors gather at the International Monetary Fund in Washington this week, it may kindle memories of another meeting, also held against the backdrop of a global economic crisis, in autumn 2008.Then, as the aftershocks from the collapse of Lehman Brothers ripped through financial markets, central banks coordinated drastic emergency rate cuts, and the UK chancellor, Alistair Darling, urged his G7 counterparts to emulate the UK’s approach and shore up stricken banks.Policy mistakes, including lax financial regulation, were partly to blame back in 2008 – but as this week’s IMF and World Bank spring meetings convene, the chaos confronting key decision-makers in the global economy has been entirely manufactured in the White House.Donald Trump’s arbitrary “reciprocal” tariffs have been paused for 90 days, with many governments hoping they will never be reinstated. But the 10% across-the-board levy that remains in place – alongside eye-watering increases in tariffs on the US’s great geopolitical rival, China – still represents a historic shock to the global trading system

‘It might be gutted’ – Boots braces for dose of private equity’s bitter medicine

The 176-year-old chemist is preparing for another change of hands. What’s the mood of staff and residents at its home base in Nottinghamshire?‘We’ve had several rounds of cost-cutting and it could happen again,” says a Boots worker. Fears are running high as the Nottinghamshire-based chemist prepares to change hands – perhaps twice in quick succession.The US private equity firm Sycamore Partners is close to finalising a $10bn (£7.8bn) deal to take over the listed US owner of Boots, Walgreens Boots Alliance

It’s not poverty that’s breeding the new populism. It’s wealth | Phillip Inman

Steve Coogan wants ­people to see his new film, The Penguin Lessons, and think about how they might be living in a wealthy cocoon, disengaged from the world.The film’s central character – a Briton teaching expat children in Argentina – rescues a penguin and tries to help local people persecuted by the rightwing government. Re-enacting a true story, Coogan is showing how it’s possible to be involved in local communities even when the protagonist is an outsider.Coogan is concerned about a political shift to the right built on a more selfish outlook, one that focuses on close family and casts a cold eye on people less fortunate. We see it in the US, in the rise of Reform in the UK, and in France and Germany