AI mediation tool may help reduce culture war rifts, say researchers
Artificial intelligence could help reduce some of the most contentious culture war divisions through a mediation process, researchers claim.Experts say a system that can create group statements that reflect majority and minority views is able to help people find common ground.Prof Chris Summerfield, a co-author of the research from the University of Oxford, who worked at Google DeepMind at the time the study was conducted, said the AI tool could have multiple purposes.“What I would like to see it used for is to give political leaders in the UK a better sense of what people in the UK really think,” he said, noting surveys gave only limited insights, while forums known as citizens’ assemblies were often costly, logistically challenging and restricted in size.Writing in the journal Science, Summerfield and colleagues from Google DeepMind report how they built the “Habermas Machine” – an AI system named after the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas.
The system works by taking written views of individuals within a group and using them to generate a set of group statements designed to be acceptable to all,Group members can then rate these statements, a process that not only trains the system but allows the statement with the greatest endorsement to be selected,Participants can also feed critiques of this initial group statement back into the Habermas Machine to result in a second collection of AI-generated statements that can again be ranked, and a final revised text selected,The team used the system in a series of experiments involving a total of more than 5,000 participants in the UK, many of whom were recruited through an online platform,In each experiment, the researchers asked participants to respond to topics, ranging from the role of monkeys in medical research to religious teaching in public education.
In one experiment, involving about 75 groups of six participants, the researchers found the initial group statement from the Habermas Machine was preferred by participants 56% of the time over a group statement produced by human mediators.The AI-based efforts were also rated as higher quality, clearer and more informative among other traits.Another series of experiments found the full two-step process with the Habermas Machine boosted the level of group agreement relative to participants’ initial views before the AI-mediation began.Overall, the researchers found agreement increased by eight percentage points on average, equivalent to four people out of 100 switching their view on a topic where opinions were originally evenly split.However the researchers stress it was not the case that participants always came off the fence, or switched opinion, to back the majority view.
The team found similar results when they used the Habermas Machine in a virtual citizens’ assembly in which 200 participants, representative of the UK population, were asked to deliberate on questions relating to topics ranging from Brexit to universal childcare.The researchers say further analysis, looking at the way the AI system represents the texts it is given numerically, shed light on how it generates group statements.“What [the Habermas Machine] seems to be doing is broadly respecting the view of the majority in each of our little groups, but kind of trying to write a piece of text that doesn’t make the minority feel deeply disenfranchised – so it sort of acknowledges the minority view,” said Summerfield.However the Habermas Machine itself has proved controversial, with other researchers noting the system does not help with translating democratic deliberations into policy.Dr Melanie Garson, an expert in conflict resolution at UCL, added while she was a tech optimist, one concern was that some minorities might be too small to influence such group statements, yet could be disproportionately affected by the result.
She also noted that the Habermas Machine does not offer participants the chance to explain their feelings, and hence develop empathy with those of a different view.Fundamentally, she said, when using technology, context is key.“[For example] how much value does this deliver in the perception that mediation is more than just finding agreement?” Garson said.“Sometimes, if it’s in the context of an ongoing relationship, it’s about teaching behaviours.”
ECB cuts interest rates to support flagging eurozone economy
The European Central Bank has intervened to prevent a sharp slowdown in the eurozone economy with its first back-to-back interest rate cut since the euro crisis in 2011.With Germany on the brink of a recession and inflation tumbling across the 20 member single currency bloc, the ECB followed a reduction in the cost of borrowing at its previous meeting in September with a further 0.25 percentage point cut in its key deposit rate to 3.25%.Marking the third interest rate cut this year, the ECB’s president, Christine Lagarde, said the fall in inflation had surprised the central bank and meant a cut was needed to ensure a soft landing for the eurozone economy
Hike in capital gains tax will spark tech exodus from UK, investor says
Tech entrepreneurs will leave the UK “en masse” if the chancellor announces a significant increase in capital gains tax at this month’s budget, according to a leading industry investor.Harry Stebbings, a British podcaster turned investor who raised a $400m (£310m) fund this week, said the UK was “a bad place to do business” because of its tax environment.The Guardian reported last week that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, was considering raising capital gains tax (CGT) to between 33% and 39% in the budget on 30 October.Stebbings said plans to scrap the non-dom tax regime had also sent a negative signal but an increase in CGT – which is levied on the sale of assets such as shares and second homes – would pose the most serious concern to entrepreneurs.“The stance on capital gains tax is by far the biggest [issue],” he told the Guardian
ECB’s Lagarde: ‘We’re breaking the neck of inflation’ after cutting interest rates – as it happened
Over at the Bank of Slovenia, in Ljubljana, the European Central Bank is holding a press conference to explain why it has lowered eurozone interest rates today.ECB president Christine Lagarde begins by running through the statement issued half an hour ago (it’s online here).She’s explaining that the ECB’s governing council decided to lower the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points, because data shows that the disinflationary process is well on track.As flagged earlier, Lagarde says that inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year.And she insists that the Governing Council is “determined” to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner
This woodworker perfected her craft during a summer of racial justice protest
Tonda Thompson got her start repairing her own furniture, and now she’s got a waitlist six months longIf it weren’t for Mickey Mouse, Tonda Thompson might never have become a carpenter. During the early weeks of the pandemic, the videographer and infant mortality activist’s then two-year-old son was performing Mickey’s hotdog dance on the living room coffee table, which broke under the weight of his enthusiastic rendition. Thompson was about to head to Target when she realized that another flimsy table would be doomed to fall apart. Inspired by a friend’s newfound woodworking skills, she secured some two-by-fours from Home Depot and got to work with her lumber. After sourcing plans from the internet and watching an instructional videos on YouTube, she set out to build a coffee table from scratch in her basement
Paul Johnson to leave influential IFS economics thinktank
The longstanding head of Britain’s most influential economics thinktank and one of the most influential figures in Westminster politics, Paul Johnson, will stand down next year.The director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said he would step down from the position in the summer of 2025 to take up the role as the provost of Queen’s College, Oxford.One of the leading authorities on tax and spending policy in Britain, Johnson is regarded as a significant figure in shaping policy, with the ear of the chancellor and MPs from across the political spectrum.Having led the IFS since January 2011, he holds significant influence in economic policymaking, with the thinktank occupying a pivotal role as an arbiter on government budgets and other tax and spending decisions.However, the thinktank, which was founded in 1969, has also faced criticism for reinforcing orthodox approaches to economic policymaking, and for focusing heavily on tax and spending issues at the expense of wider social considerations
US group Advent International ‘preparing bid for Tate & Lyle’
Tate & Lyle could become the next UK company to fall to an overseas takeover offer, after reports that the US private equity firm Advent International is preparing a bid for the group.Shares in Tate & Lyle, which makes ingredients such as artificial sweeteners, jumped by as much as 13% on Wednesday after the Financial Times reported that Advent was in the early stages of preparing an offer.If a bid comes, it would value the London-headquartered Tate & Lyle above its market value of £2.8bn before Advent’s interest emerged, the FT said. The company was valued at more than £3bn after Wednesday’s share price surge
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