US economy ‘motoring along’ with 2.8% growth; coffee prices hit near-50 year high – as it happened
A flurry of US economic data has just been released, as statistics bodies clear the decks ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow.First of all, we have confirmation that the US economy grew faster than European rivals in the last quarter.US GDP is estimated to have risen by an annualised rate of 2.8% in July-September, the same as was estimated last month.That’s the equivalent of 0.
7% growth quarter-on-quarter, much faster than the UK’s 0,1% growth, and the 0,4% recorded in the eurozone,The U,S.
economy grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3, the same rate estimated a month ago.#GDPOn trade, the US trade deficit has narrowed – to $99.1bn in October, down $9.6bn from the $108.
7bn deficit recorded in September,Imports fell faster than exports:Exports of goods for October were $168,7bn, $5,6bn less than September exports,Imports of goods for October were $267.
8bn, $15,2bn less than September imports,Time to recap…The US economy expanded at a solid pace in the third quarter of the year, new data has confirmed,US gross domestic product increased at a 2,8% annualized pace in July-September, the second estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed today.
Analysts said it showed America’s economy was ‘motoring’ along.But policymakers fear that new tariffs imposed by Donald Trump could hit growth at home and abroad.Price pressures seem to be picking up a little in the US, with the PCE inflation measure rising to 2.3% in the year to October.Coffee prices are certainly rising – they have jumped to their highest level in almost 50 years today, with analysts blaming fears of supply shortages.
There have been some jitters on the French stock market, on concerns that the Paris government could be brought down by a row over a belt-tightening draft budget.Elsewhere:#UPDATE The price of Arabica coffee hit its highest level since 1977 on Wednesday, approaching a record high as drought in top producer Brazil this year hits supplies ➡️ https://t.co/mZEaW2uVMx pic.twitter.com/7TKhxZYEIJWholesale coffee prices have hit their highest level in around half a century today.
World arabica coffee price benchmarks climbed to their highest since 1977 on the ICE exchange today, Reuters reports, at $3.21 per lb (£2.53/lb).Reuters attributes the rally to farmers in Brazil still reluctant to sell, speculators piling in, and talk of panic buying amongst the trade.A coffee expert at one of the world’s top agricultural trade houses explained:“Brazil farmers are not interested in selling, the trade has no cash and can’t sell or put on new hedges, and speculators will certainly not sell, so there are not many sellers.
”Analysts at Saxo Bank said coffee prices were rising due to “sustained worries about Brazil’s 2025 output after trees were hurt by a long drought earlier this year”.There are also concerns that next year’s harvest could suffer from the long dry and hot period that affected arabica coffee crops earlier this year, analysts at Rabobank explained.Arabica is the high-end variety favored for specialty brews.The price of robusta coffee, used to price the cheaper coffee variety typically used in instant coffee blends, has risen by almost 5% today, to the highest since the start of October.The US central bank’s favourite inflation measure has risen.
The PCE price index rose by 2.3% in the year to October, up from 2.1% in September to match August’s reading.Stripping out food and energy, and core PCE rose to 2.8% from 2.
7%.The Federal Reserve favours PCE as a good measure of inflationary pressures in the US economy, so Fed policymakers may be concerned to see prices rising faster than its 2% inflation target.The increase in US GDP in the last quarter was due to increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, and business investment.The BEA reports:The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services.Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts (led by used light trucks).
Within services, the leading contributor to the increase was health care (both outpatient services and hospitals).The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).The increase in federal government spending primarily reflected an increase in defense spending.The increase in business investment primarily reflected an increase in equipment (led by information processing equipment as well as transportation equipment).The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).
Get details about how the U,S,economy performed in the third quarter of 2024 by reading our latest blog: https://t,co/UKQzMJah2g pic,twitter.
com/wIhTRyhsyjThere’s a subdued start to trading on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average has gained 75 points, or 0.17%, to 44,935 points.There’s more action among small company stocks, though, lifting the Russell 2000 index by 1%.The Russian rouble has lurched to its lowest level since the early days of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.The rouble has plunged by over 7.
3% today to 113 roubles to the dollar, its weakest level since mid-March 2022,The latest drop came just days after the US introduced sanctions against Gazprombank, Russia’s third-largest bank, which played a key role in processing payments for the remaining Russian natural gas exports to Europe,My colleague Pjotr Sauer reports:Earlier rounds of sanctions had spared Russian gas because Europe’s economy was so dependent on it, but it is now far less reliant on Russian supplies,The Gazprombank sanctions raise the prospect of a further decrease in gas revenues and foreign currency for Moscow,The rouble’s weakening threatens to erode Russians’ purchasing power by increasing the cost of imported goods and could further increase inflation.
The country is already contending with runaway inflation, which could climb to 8,5% this year – twice the Central Bank’s target,US unemployment claims remained low last week,There were 213,000 new initial claims for jobless support last week, a drop of 2,000 compared with the previous week,Today’s US GDP report shows that disposable personal incomes kept rising in the last quarter, despite inflation taking a bite out of pay packets.
The Bureau of Economic Activity says:Disposable personal income increased $122.9 billion, or 2.3 percent, in the third quarter, a downward revision of $43.1 billion from the previous estimate.Real disposable personal income increased 0.
8 percent, a downward revision of 0.8 percentage point.Today’s US GDP report looks to be good news for Donald Trump – suggesting he will take control of an economy in good shape.Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, says:“The US economy is clearly motoring.The second reading of Q3 annualised US real GDP growth has come in at 2.
8%, in line with expectations and following 3% growth delivered in Q2, and 1.6% seen in Q1.“Rising real wages, falling interest rates and likely falling taxes and deregulation are all factors that are usually good news for stocks, and markets are already performing strongly in factoring in the better than expected growth.“US GDP has defied expectations throughout 2024, having been helped along by numerous factors.Consumer confidence levels, which have been consistently dreadful and would have indicated otherwise, do not seem to have deterred spending.
Instead, US consumers continued with purchases, if more selectively in lower income households, which has played a significant role in boosting the economy.“While growth has proven unexpectedly strong this year, looking ahead, Trump’s Cabinet picks combined with a set of economic policies that are substantially un-tested in modern developed world economies mean that the range of outcomes for 2025 is wide.Nonetheless, expectations for the US economy are now much higher than they were, reflected by stock market gains of around 30% year to date.“With an impending sugar high from Donald Trump on the horizon, the US economy should continue to grow at a similar rate.However, it will take some time for the true nature and impact of the president-elect’s policies to materialise.
As covered in the introduction, Bank of England deputy governor Clare Lombardelli have warned that the president-elect’s proposed trade tariff would pose a risk to economic growth in countries including the UK.Orders for durable goods at US factories rose last month, but by less than expected.Orders for durable goods – tangible products that can be stored or inventoried and that have an average life of at least three years – increased by 0.2% in October, less than the 0.5% expected.
That follows a 0.4% fall in September – possibly a sign that customers are getting orders in before new tariffs are imposed on imports?Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased 0.1%.Excluding defense products, new orders increased 0.4%.
A flurry of US economic data has just been released, as statistics bodies clear the decks ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow.First of all, we have confirmation that the US economy grew faster than European rivals in the last quarter.US GDP is estimated to have risen by an annualised rate of 2.8% in July-September, the same as was estimated last month.That’s the equivalent of 0.
7% growth quarter-on-quarter, much faster than the UK’s 0,1% growth, and the 0,4% recorded in the eurozone,The U,S