Strong Australian jobs figures lower expectations of pre-Christmas interest rate cut
Australia’s economy added far more jobs than expected last month, making it less likely the Reserve Bank of Australia will be opting for an interest rate cut this side of Christmas.The gains lifted the number of extra jobs since the Albanese government took office to more than 1 million, the treasurer, Jim Chalmers, said.The unemployment rate in September was 4.1%, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday.Economists had predicted the rate would remain at the 4.
2% rate initially reported for August.The ABS has now revised August’s rate down to 4.1%The economy added 64,100 jobs last month.Economists had predicted a net gain of 25,000 jobs, or about half the 47,500 created in August, according to the ABS.Of the new jobs created in September, 51,600 were full-time roles.
The participation rate, one measure of the share of working-age people in the labour market, came in at a record 67.2%.Hours worked also increased to 1.97bn.The strength of the labour market has been one reason why most households have so far been able to weather the sharpest burst of inflation and interest rate hikes in three decades.
Sign up for Guardian Australia’s breaking news emailStill, shrinking job ads and vacancies point to an emerging weakness in employment.Both Treasury and the RBA are forecasting the jobless rate will rise to about 4.4-4.5% by the middle of 2025, a figure still lower than most years since the mid-1970s.Prior to Thursday’s release, the Albanese government had said almost 978,000 jobs had been added since it came to office in May 2022 and today’s addition tipped that number over the 1 million mark.
The next closest tally, in absolute terms, was the final term of the Howard government between 2004 and 2007,“This is the first and only time any government of any political persuasion has overseen the creation of a million new jobs in a single parliamentary term,” Chalmers said,“We welcome the fact that the majority of these million new jobs are full time and around half are for women,”Whether the government can maintain those bragging rights will depend on the timing of the federal election and whether the RBA has started cutting its cash rate by then,Ahead of the latest data, investors were betting on a 40% chance of a rate reduction by December and a 70% chance by February.
Sign up to Breaking News AustraliaGet the most important news as it breaksafter newsletter promotionThe Australian dollar moved about a third of a US cent higher to just under 67 US cents and stocks pared their gains for the day after the jobs figures landed.Those moves implied investors had reduced their estimates of how soon the RBA would be cutting the cash rate.“Ultimately, this means less pressure on the RBA to bring forward its rate cut timeline,” said Russel Chesler, the head of investments and capital markets at VanEck.“The hot jobs market is preventing inflation from falling much further, as it is keeping services inflation persistently high.“The market is pricing in cuts to start by February 2025, but we believe rate cuts will start much later in 2025.
”Bjorn Jarvis, the head of labour statistics at the ABS, said employment had risen 3.1% in the past year, outpacing the 2.5% population growth pace.The employment-to-population ratio had lifted by 0.4 percentage points over that time to a record 64.
4%,“While the number of unemployed people fell slightly to 616,000 in September, overall the number of unemployed has risen by around 90,000 people since September 2023,” he said,“Despite this rise over the last year, there are still around 93,000 fewer unemployed people than there were just before the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, when the unemployment rate was at 5,2%,”
Don’t drag my autistic children into the Tories’ war on ‘woke’ | Letters
I felt compelled to respond to the latest Conservative punch-down: Kemi Badenoch’s endorsement of dangerously false claims on the administrative load of neurodivergence (What kind of person would drag autistic children into the culture wars? The Kemi Badenoch kind, 14 October). As a parent of two autistic boys without a formal diagnosis – the eldest already two years into the waiting list, with the youngster’s referral somewhere in the ether – I’m absolutely livid. To see your loved ones struggle without the support they need to keep them safe and well is hard enough, before they’re dragged into Tory point-scoring against “woke” society.On a professional level, I’m even more affronted by these accusations of workplace meddling and entitlement by people with neurodevelopmental differences. I’m part of a research group exploring autistic health inequalities, and I can assure readers that there is ample evidence that every factor that equates to poor health outcomes is more prevalent in the autistic community
Ethical alarms should be ringing over weight-loss jabs for the jobless | Letters
The proposal by the health secretary, Wes Streeting, that weight-loss drugs could be provided to unemployed people deemed to be obese, as a way to help them get back to work and ease the demands on the NHS caused by obesity, should raise ethical alarms (Employers should be fined for unhealthy workplaces, says thinktank, 16 October).Would taking the drug be voluntary, or would it become a condition for entitlement to benefits? Recalling Labour’s previous support for conditionality and sanctions, one can guess which way it would go.Would giving drugs for obesity be a precedent for drugs for other medical conditions deemed to affect the probability of obtaining jobs? Many who become unemployed become depressed. Will the Department for Work and Pensions insist on their taking antidepressants, or lose benefits? Many unemployed people become angry. Will they be given anger‑suppressing drugs?Another set of ethical issues relates to the implied selectivity
Mental health professionals must work together | Letters
Psychiatrists have a fundamental role to play in resolving the ongoing mental health crisis and it is disappointing to see that outdated and erroneous tropes about our work are still widely believed, even by other mental health professionals (Letters, 10 October).People who have a mental illness usually require a range of therapeutic approaches, including psychotherapy, social and occupational interventions, family work and medication. As doctors, psychiatrists take a holistic approach that recognises the complex interaction between psychological, social, cultural, environmental and biological factors, and the impact that these can have on mental health. This ensures that patients receive personalised care and treatment options as well as support from a variety of other services.Psychiatry has been at the forefront of developing the biopsychosocial model, which is routinely used in modern psychiatric practice to help people recover from all types of mental illness
UK housing: how has unsafe cladding affected you and your home?
We would like to find out more about people who live in homes with unsafe cladding and what their experience has been like over the years. Have remedial works been completed, are in progress, or are yet to start? Have you experienced any problems moving home, selling or remortgaging? What effect, if any, has it had on your mental and physical health?You can tell us how living in a residential building with unsafe cladding has affected you, by filling in the form below.Please be specific and include as much detail as possible. Please be specific and include as much detail as possible. Please be specific and include as much detail as possible
Tell us: do you know someone who died in pregnancy or during childbirth?
We’d like to find out more about maternal deaths in the UK as recent figures show a rise in numbers. We’re interested in hearing from anyone whose friend, relative or loved one died in pregnancy, during childbirth, or within a year of pregnancy between 2020 and 2024.What was their experience like and what kind of treatment or care did they receive? We’re also interested in hearing from healthcare professionals and their experiences.You can share your experience by filling in the form below. Please leave blank if you wish to be anonymousPlease be specific and include as much detail as possible
Archbishop of Canterbury to meet MP behind assisted dying bill
The archbishop of Canterbury is to meet the architect of a parliamentary bill to legalise assisted dying after he described a change in the law as dangerous.Kim Leadbeater, MP for Spen Valley, wrote to Justin Welby after he intervened in the debate over assisted dying. The archbishop said the MP’s private member’s bill would lead to a “slippery slope”, including a broadening of criteria and pressure on people to die prematurely.She proposed a meeting to discuss the issues. Lambeth Palace said it was trying to find a mutually convenient date
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