Reform UK bearing down on Labour as voters back harder line on migration

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Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, is now neck and neck with Labour largely because its stance on immigration is proving attractive to floating voters, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer.The rise of the populist rightwing party is causing increasing concern in the Labour high command and among the many Labour MPs who hold seats where Reform came a close second at last summer’s general election.The poll shows Labour on 27%, Reform UK on 26% and the Tories on 22%.The Liberal Democrats are on 11% and the Greens 8%.Reform has risen from about 20% in Opinium’s polling shortly after the general election, while the other two main parties have fallen back.

Among those who are backing Reform, the poll found that 37% say they do so because of its hardline policies on immigration and border controls.Separately, among people who are “Reform considerers” (thinking about backing the party), about 72% said they were doing so because of the party’s immigration and borders policies.This is more than twice the percentage cited for any other policy issue.Roughly 36% cited Reform UK’s anti-EU stance as the main reason for considering backing the party.At last summer’s general election two of Reform UK’s five main policy pledges were to do with migration.

It said it would freeze non-essential immigration, with exceptions only for essential healthcare workers.On the issue of small boats smuggling migrants across the Channel, the party said it would “pick up illegal migrants out of boats and take them back to France”, and added that “zero illegal migrants” would be resettled in the UK.The poll also shows disastrous falls in Keir Starmer’s personal ratings since the general election.His rating for being “in touch with ordinary people” has fallen from +4% in June last year to -34%.His rating for “representing what ordinary people think” has plummeted from +1% to -39%.

Sign up to ObservedAnalysis and opinion on the week's news and culture brought to you by the best Observer writers after newsletter promotionLabour MPs in 89 seats which are under threat from Reform UK have set up an informal caucus which is pressing Downing Street to take a tougher stance on the issues of migration and crime,

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